The Problem With Deterministic Forecasts

Traditional methods that we use to come up with 30 days, what's the confidence attached with that? Yeah, so let's talk about this. It's one of my classic examples that I like to give in a lot of my talks is, let's say we're working on a project and project has gone for one week. And in that one week, we've got 12 stories done. Let's further say that we know there are 120 stories left in our backlog. Traditionally, how might we figure out when will that project be done? Ten weeks. The problem is, so when we communicate that 10 weeks to our customers, what are our customers thinking? Our customers are again thinking