
Episode 2 - Probabilistic Thinking
Drunk Agile
00:00
The Floor of Averages
The problem is, actually, the problem is very well described by a book called The Floor of Averages. What we're really doing is doing a regression with taking this one number and saying that's our average stories per week. And so just because you have one year that's above, that does not tell you anything. It tells you absolutely nothing. Especially for a deal with an average, we're probably, and potentially at best, somewhere around 50% certainty when we're talking about an average.
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