The Importance of Past Behavior in Forecasting

The only thing that I would say is that the best predictor of current or future behavior is past behavior. And we should be looking to that to inform us of where we're headed. Chances are, when you really start digging, the problem isn't that you don't have enough data. The problem is you've got too much data,. Now we need to filter out and decide which of that data is really relevant for our forecasting.