Professionals in organizations exhibit significant variability in judgments, leading to 'noise' that can affect crucial decision-making processes.
Embracing anthropological intelligence in business can offer valuable insights into diverse perspectives and cultural nuances that influence decision-making.
Deep dives
The Concept of Noise in Decision-Making
Noise, as explored in the podcast, refers to the variability in judgments that professionals make within organizations. Examples such as judges' sentencing discrepancies demonstrate this concept, where even expected uniformity falls drastically short. This noise, akin to the inconsistency on a bathroom scale, affects crucial decisions and unveils unexpected levels of disagreement among professionals.
An Insight into Human Judgment and Variability
In exploring judgment noise, the podcast delves into human variability in decision-making, emphasizing its prevalence across various professions like judges, underwriters, and physicians. Studies reveal the significant discrepancies in judgments made by professionals facing the same cases, showcasing a pervasive pattern of divergence. This realization challenges traditional assumptions of uniformity in decision-making processes.
The Impact of Noise on Organizational Meetings
The examination of noisy decision-making extends to organizational meetings, where the tendency for conformity and early speaker influence heightens noise levels. The podcast suggests a proactive approach to mitigating noise, proposing structured meeting formats that encourage individual judgment expression before group discussions. This strategy aims to unveil hidden variability and promote diverse opinions for more informed decision-making.
Cultural Considerations in Business Decisions
Emphasizing the importance of understanding cultural nuances in business, the discussion highlights how different interpretations and norms can impact decisions. Gillian Tete's insights on 'weird' (western-educated, individualistic, rich, democratic) mentalities shed light on the need to consider diverse perspectives. The podcast underscores the value of anthropological intelligence in grasping contextual factors that can influence decision-making processes across global business settings.
The Nobel prize-winning economist and Professor of Psychology Daniel Kahneman focuses his latest research on the high cost of inconsistent decision making. In Noise, co-authored with Oliver Sibony and Cass R Sunstein, he looks at why humans can be so unreliable, and what can be done about it. He tells Andrew Marr that people working in the same job often make wildly different judgements, influenced by factors like their current mood, when they last ate, even the weather. He argues that ‘noise’ is distinct from bias and has been neglected by organisations and businesses.
Gillian Tett is Editor-at-Large for the Financial Times and is also focused on transforming the world of business. But whereas Kahneman uses the methods of psychology, Tett argues for anthropology. For over a century anthropologists have immersed themselves in unfamiliar cultures, studying the hidden rituals at play. In her book Anthro-Vision, Tett uses similar techniques to reveal the underlying structures and human behaviour in our modern world – from Amazon warehouses to Silicon Valley to City trading floors.
Ann Cairns is the Executive Vice Chair of Mastercard which has hundreds of offices worldwide. She explores how psychology and anthropology can help to manage the company’s fortunes and employees through times of flux and change. Cairns started out as a research scientist before developing an interest in offshore engineering, becoming the first woman qualified to work offshore in Britain. She moved into banking in the late 1980s and joined Mastercard in 2011.
Producer: Katy Hickman
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