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Hidden Forces

What the Bond Sell-off Means for Investors | Andy Constan & Mike Green

Oct 10, 2023
"What the Bond Sell-off Means for Investors" features Andy Constan, a bond market expert, and Mike Green, an analyst. They analyze the recent turmoil in the bond market, discussing the rise in long-term government debt and its implications for the economy. Topics include the risk-reward for investors considering bonds in their portfolio and the challenges of forecasting economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. They also explore the impact of long-term interest rates on the housing market and the divergence between stock and bond returns.
52:53

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The recent increase in long-term government bond yields may lead to higher debt servicing costs for the US government and potential demand destruction through the wealth effect if asset prices decline.
  • The Treasury's decisions on issuing bills or longer-term bonds have a significant impact on the supply dynamics in the bond market, including bond term premiums and asset market performance.

Deep dives

The Impact of Higher Rates on the Economy and Asset Markets

The podcast discusses the recent increase in long-term government bond yields and the potential implications for the economy and asset markets. The guests analyze the factors contributing to the rise in yields and the potential effects on debt servicing costs for the US government. They emphasize that the employment picture remains strong, but highlight the risk of demand destruction through the wealth effect if asset prices decline. They also discuss the implications for investors and the risk-reward calculus for adding bonds to portfolios.

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