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What the Bond Sell-off Means for Investors | Andy Constan & Mike Green

Hidden Forces

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The Challenging Environment of Forecasting Economic Activity

In this chapter, they discuss the challenging environment of forecasting economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. They mention their previous event in New York where they made the case that the Fed had already overtightened. They discuss the effect of short-term floating rate borrowing and compare the current situation to the 2004-2008 period of hiking rates. They also talk about unexpected events such as the ERC fraud and the sharp fall in oil prices. They question whether the tightening has reached a point of no escape and if it will lead to a hard stop instead of just a slowdown.

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