The Tim Ferriss Show #840: Bill Gurley — Investing in The AI Era, 10 Days in China, and Important Life Lessons from Bob Dylan, Jerry Seinfeld, MrBeast, and More
Bill Gurley, a general partner at Benchmark, shares insights on navigating the AI investment landscape and critiques circular corporate deals. He warns retail investors about risks in late-stage private markets and promotes backing domain experts in AI. Gurley also discusses his enlightening ten-day trip to China, revealing the rapid innovation driven by provincial competition and companies like Xiaomi. He draws life lessons from prominent figures, emphasizing passion and curiosity as keys to success, and underscores the importance of adaptability in career paths.
02:10:09
00:00 / 00:00
Bubbles And Real Tech Waves Coexist
- Major technological waves and rapid wealth creation naturally produce simultaneous speculative bubbles and real industrial transformation.
- The presence of speculation does not invalidate the fundamental importance of the technology wave.
00:00 / 00:00
Be Wary Of Retail SPVs
- Avoid retail SPVs and one-off private deals promoted by newcomers without transparency.
- Consider your true risk tolerance and remember most VC-backed private companies fail or return zero.
00:00 / 00:00
Invest At AI–Industry Intersections
- If angel investing now, prioritize founders who pair deep domain expertise with advanced AI usage in their industry.
- Stay away from generic AI plays that are likely to be replicated by big model providers.
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Intro
00:00 • 2min
AI: Bubble Dynamics and Historical Patterns
01:43 • 2min
Corporate Circular Deals and Speculation
04:05 • 5min
Retail Investors, SPVs, and Private Market Risks
08:35 • 3min
Angel Investing Strategy in the AI Era
12:01 • 3min
Ad break
15:03 • 3min
Finding AI-Resilient Vertical Opportunities
17:53 • 3min
Ten Days in China: Purpose and Goals
20:47 • 2min
China Misperceptions and Provincial Competition
22:45 • 3min
Xiaomi, Lei Jun, and Rapid Product Execution
25:40 • 4min
Critiques: Tall Trees, Surveillance, and State Relations
29:29 • 3min
China's Industrial Advantages and Global Implications
32:11 • 9min
How the U.S. Can Compete: Build and Simplify
41:09 • 4min
Ad break
45:22 • 2min
Running Down a Dream: Origin and Permission
47:39 • 5min
Passion, Obsession, and Learning as Differentiators
52:51 • 4min
Go Where the Action Is and Embrace Peers
56:59 • 8min
MrBeast Example: Virtual Peer Mastery
01:05:12 • 6min
Danny Meyer: Intentional Pivot and Apprenticeship
01:11:23 • 6min
How to Transition: Experiments, Time-Bound Trials, and Permission
01:17:17 • 5min
Sanity Checks, AI Risks, and Playing with Tools
01:22:05 • 5min
AI-Resilient Bets: Experiences, Hospitality, and Storytelling
01:26:46 • 3min
Sam Hinkie and Career Reinvention via Focused Study
01:29:17 • 4min
Recommended Reading and Intellectual Grounding
01:32:48 • 23sec
Avoiding False Failures and Embracing Dark Chapters
01:33:11 • 11min
Bill's Next Moves: P3 Policy Institute and Grant Work
01:43:51 • 7min
Policy Targets: Regulatory Capture, IP, and State Competition
01:50:50 • 14min
Outro
02:05:13 • 5min
#435
• Mentioned in 59 episodes
The Rational Optimist
How Prosperity Evolves
Matt Ridley
In 'The Rational Optimist', Matt Ridley presents a bold and provocative interpretation of economic history, arguing that the innate human tendency to trade goods and services, along with specialization, is the source of modern human civilization.
The book covers the entire sweep of human history from the Stone Age to the Internet, highlighting how life is improving at an accelerating rate through increased food availability, income, and life span, while disease, child mortality, and violence are decreasing globally.
Ridley emphasizes the role of free trade, individual rights, and innovation in enhancing human prosperity and natural biodiversity despite potential setbacks.
#50
• Mentioned in 223 episodes
Moneyball
The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
Michael Lewis
The book tells the story of the Oakland Athletics' 2002 season, where General Manager Billy Beane and his assistant Paul DePodesta used advanced statistical analysis, known as sabermetrics, to assemble a competitive team despite a limited budget.
The approach, pioneered by Bill James, focused on metrics such as on-base percentage and slugging percentage rather than traditional measures like batting average and runs batted in.
This data-driven strategy allowed the Athletics to compete with teams having much larger payrolls, like the New York Yankees, and achieve significant success, including a 20-game winning streak and a playoff appearance.
#131
• Mentioned in 133 episodes
From Strength to Strength
Finding Success, Happiness, and Deep Purpose in the Second Half of Life
Arthur C Brooks
In 'From Strength to Strength', Arthur C. Brooks addresses the inevitable decline in abilities that comes with aging and provides a practical guide on how to transform this period into an opportunity for growth.
Drawing on social science, philosophy, biography, theology, and eastern wisdom, as well as interviews with everyday men and women, Brooks advocates for refocusing on priorities such as deep wisdom, detachment from empty rewards, connection and service to others, and spiritual progress.
He argues that by adapting our expectations and focusing on these areas, we can achieve increased happiness and purpose in our later years.
#2195
• Mentioned in 18 episodes
Competitive strategy
Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors
Michael Porter
This book by Michael E. Porter provides a detailed analysis of the competitive landscape by introducing the Five Forces framework: threat of new entrants, intensity of rivalry among existing competitors, pressure from substitute products, bargaining power of buyers, and bargaining power of suppliers.
Porter also presents three generic strategies—cost leadership, differentiation, and focus—which help companies position themselves competitively.
The book has been highly influential in shaping the discipline of competitor assessment and has been widely adopted by managers, analysts, and scholars worldwide.
#64
• Mentioned in 204 episodes
Grit
The Power of Passion and Perseverance
Angela Duckworth
In this book, Angela Duckworth presents a compelling argument that success is driven more by grit, a fusion of relentless passion and perseverance, than by talent.
She explains what grit is, how to identify and develop it, and how it can be grown through stages such as developing interests, consistent practice, finding a pro-social purpose, and cultivating optimism.
The book is structured in three parts: explaining what grit is and why it matters, how to grow grit from the inside out, and how to grow grit from the outside in, targeting parents, coaches, teachers, and organizational leaders.
Duckworth supports her arguments with personal stories, historical insights, and interviews with high achievers from various fields.
#11127
• Mentioned in 4 episodes
The Last Laugh
Jim Shockey
This book is not known to me.
#1468
• Mentioned in 24 episodes
Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
Carlota Perez
Carlota Perez's "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital" examines the interplay between technological innovation and economic development.
The book argues that technological revolutions unfold in distinct phases, each characterized by specific economic and social dynamics.
Perez identifies key technological revolutions throughout history, analyzing their impact on investment, employment, and global power structures.
Her work emphasizes the role of financial capital in driving technological change and shaping economic cycles.
The book offers a comprehensive framework for understanding long-term economic trends and the challenges of managing technological transitions.
#293
• Mentioned in 78 episodes
Greenlights
Matthew McConaughey
Greenlights is a candid and unconventional memoir by Matthew McConaughey.
The book blends wild stories, life lessons, and poetic insights, offering a roadmap to catching more 'greenlights'—those moments when everything in life seems to go your way.
McConaughey draws on his 36 years of journaling to share his approach to living, which emphasizes recognizing and embracing the greenlights in life, even when they are disguised as yellow or red lights.
The book is a celebration of life, gratitude, and self-dedication, and it provides practical advice on navigating life's challenges and finding success and happiness.
#320
• Mentioned in 73 episodes
Breakneck
Dan Wang
In *Breakneck*, Dan Wang explores China's transformation into an *engineering state*, relentlessly pursuing megaprojects, contrasting it with America's *lawyerly society*.
The book delves into China's economic ascent and the social engineering costs, such as zero-COVID and the one-child policy, offering insights into global geopolitics.
Bill Gurley (@bgurley) is a general partner at Benchmark, a leading venture capital firm in Silicon Valley. His new book is Runnin’ Down a Dream: How to Thrive in a Career You Actually Love.
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Timestamps:
- [00:00:00] Start.
- [00:01:43] The book that gave Jerry Seinfeld permission to pursue comedy and inspired Runnin’ Down a Dream.
- [00:03:59] AI bubble or not?
- [00:06:33] Circular deals and SPV chaos.
- [00:12:01] Angel investing in the AI era.
- [00:14:32] Why you should be the most AI-enabled version of yourself, regardless of field.
- [00:20:47] China deep dive: Ten days, six cities, high-speed trains, and a Xiaomi SU7 factory tour.
- [00:22:43] Communism misconceptions.
- [00:25:40] Lei Jun: The Steve Jobs of China.
- [00:29:17] Jack Ma, ByteDance’s invisible CEO, and the risks of prominence in China.
- [00:32:11] America vs. China (Lawyers vs. engineers).
- [00:41:01] Keys for US competitiveness.
- [00:43:47] Bill is bullish on these countries.
- [00:47:30] Matthew McConaughey’s “Don’t half ass it” moment.
- [00:49:45] Runnin’ Down a Dream thesis: Helping people pursue X instead of A, B, or C.
- [00:51:03] The 80,000-hour question.
- [00:52:47] The self-learning test.
- [00:56:58] Bob Dylan as music expeditionary.
- [01:00:27] Go to the epicenter where the action is.
- [01:10:56] Danny Meyer’s pivot.
- [01:13:30] Working for free.
- [01:19:37] Never too late: Tito Beveridge started Tito’s Vodka at 40.
- [01:21:51] AI sanity checks.
- [01:25:59] AI-proof bets.
- [01:29:13] Sam Hinkie’s Moneyball moment.
- [01:32:37] Competitive strategy, avoiding false failures, and regret minimalization.
- [01:43:46] Purpose, Progress, and Prosperity — the P3 Policy Institute.
- [01:47:18] Regulatory capture explained.
- [01:51:55] Why the IPO market is broken.
- [02:01:52] Stablecoins putting Visa and Mastercard on notice.
- [02:03:40] Hopes for Runnin’ Down a Dream and parting thoughts.
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