Nate Silver on why 2020 isn't 2016

Oct 29, 2020

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and a leading election forecaster, joins to discuss the 2020 election landscape. He analyzes what went wrong in 2016 polling and why similarities this time might still favor Biden. Silver reflects on the surprising polling stability amidst national crises and debates the potential for a Biden landslide, including winning traditionally red states like Texas and Georgia. He also explores the Republican advantages in government and how they affect future elections.

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INSIGHT

2016 Polling Missteps

Undecided voters disproportionately favored Trump in 2016, especially in key Midwestern states.
This, combined with polling errors in education weighting, contributed to the unexpected outcome.

INSIGHT

Polling Adjustments After 2016

Pollsters have attempted to correct for 2016's education-weighting errors, but other biases might persist.
The direction of polling errors remains unpredictable, and pollsters constantly adapt their methods.

INSIGHT

Early Voting Surge

A potential polling error in Biden's favor could stem from underestimating the early voting surge.
If Democrats have voted early at higher rates, traditional likely-voter models might not fully capture this.

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As you may have heard, there's a pretty important election coming up. That means it's time to bring back the one and only Nate Silver.

Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, boasts one of the best election forecasting records of any analyst in the last 15 years. His forecasting models successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 US presidential election and all 50 states in 2012. And in 2016, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28 percent chance of victory — a significantly higher percentage than virtually any other prominent analyst at the time. He knows what he’s talking about, and it shows in this conversation. We discuss:

What went wrong with the polls in 2016 — and whether pollsters today have corrected for those mistakes
Why a 2016-sized polling error in 2020 would still hand Joe Biden the election
Why the 2020 race has been so incredibly steady despite a global pandemic, an economic crisis, and the biggest national protest movement in US history
The possibility of a Biden landslide
The not-so-small chance that Biden could win Texas and Georgia
The massive Republican advantage in the Senate, House, and Electoral College — and how that affects our national politics
Why the Senate would still advantage Republicans, even if Democrats added five blue states.
Whether the Bernie Sanders left took the wrong lessons from 2016
Why Biden’s unorthodox 2020 campaign strategy has been so successful
Whether Sanders would be doing just as well against Trump as Biden is doing
How a more generic, non-Trump Republican would be faring against Biden
Why Silver is generally optimistic that we will avoid an electoral crisis on November 3

And much more.

References:

“How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19." Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

"The Senate’s Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court." Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

Let the People Pick the President: The Case for Abolishing the Electoral College by Jesse Wegman

"Toby Ord on existential risk, Donald Trump, and thinking in probabilities." The Ezra Klein Show

"The Real Story of 2016" by Nate Silver

Book recommendations:

The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova

Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom

The Precipice by Toby Ord

Credits:

Producer/Audio engineer - Jeff Geld

Researcher - Roge Karma

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