58. Bryan Caplan - Self Help is Like a Vaccine

In this book, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the predictive abilities of experts by analyzing 27,451 verifiable predictions made by 284 world-renowned experts over more than 20 years. He finds that expert predictions are often no better than random guesses and identifies two types of thinkers: 'hedgehogs,' who are confident in their single, overarching idea, and 'foxes,' who are more eclectic and adaptable. Tetlock argues that foxes are generally more accurate in their predictions due to their ability to consider multiple perspectives and adapt to new information. The book also explores how the media often favors hedgehogs for their confident and decisive statements, despite their lower accuracy.

First published in 1936, 'How to Win Friends and Influence People' by Dale Carnegie is a timeless guide to improving interpersonal skills. The book is divided into four main sections: Six Ways to Make People Like You, Twelve Ways to Win People to Your Way of Thinking, and Nine Ways to Change People Without Giving Offense or Arousing Resentment. Carnegie's principles emphasize the importance of genuine interest in others, active listening, and avoiding criticism and argument. The book offers practical advice on how to build strong relationships, communicate effectively, and influence others by aligning their self-interest with yours. It has been a cornerstone of personal development and business success for generations.

In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events. The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities.