Margins Are Shrinking, Debt Is Rising – What’s Next for Ecom?
Feb 6, 2025
auto_awesome
Drew Fallon, co-founder and CEO of Iris Finance, shares his expertise in financial modeling for ecommerce brands. He discusses the troubling trends of rising debt and shrinking margins, emphasizing that while revenue is increasing, profitability is waning. Drew breaks down the financial health of 8-figure brands and offers practical strategies for navigating cash flow challenges. He highlights the importance of adapting to new economic realities, urging brands to rethink their financial metrics for sustainable growth amidst a shifting landscape.
E-commerce brands are experiencing squeezed margins despite increased sales, indicating rising operational costs that negatively affect profitability.
Rising debt levels among brands, combined with poorer-quality loans, present risks to future financial stability and sustainable growth.
Effective cash flow management is essential for e-commerce success, as many brands struggle with cash availability despite healthy EBITDA figures.
Deep dives
The Stability of Email Marketing
Email marketing is a highly effective and reliable strategy for online merchants, often providing significant returns on investment. Brands that utilize email and SMS marketing platforms, such as Omnisend, typically generate an average of $73 for every dollar spent. This consistency and ability to deliver steady results make email marketing a powerful tool, especially in unpredictable economic times. The simplicity of setting up automated campaigns allows brands to focus on other aspects of their business while ensuring that their marketing efforts continue to convert.
E-commerce Financial Realities
Data analysis reveals that many eight-figure e-commerce brands are facing squeezed margins despite increased net sales. For instance, the data pulled from 500 active brands showed a modest 15% increase in net sales, yet gross margins only improved by 3%, leading to a decline in contribution margins by 5%. This indicates that while brands are selling more, costs associated with supply chains, advertising, and operations are rising, negatively impacting overall profitability. The findings suggest that many companies are struggling to maintain a healthy EBITDA amid these financial pressures.
The Growing Concern of Leverage
As e-commerce brands continue to navigate a challenging economic landscape, many are experiencing a significant increase in leverage, which poses risks to future financial stability. One analysis indicated that the average leverage of brands grew by more than 50% year over year. This is compounded by the fact that many of the debts acquired are likely of poorer quality compared to past borrowings due to rising interest rates and more stringent lending conditions. Consequently, there is a concern that if these companies cannot balance their growth with sustainable debt levels, they may face substantial financial challenges.
The Importance of Cash Flow Management
Effective cash flow management emerges as a critical factor for e-commerce success, especially given the realities of rising operational costs and the challenges associated with collecting receivables. Many brands are realizing that healthy EBITDA figures do not always translate into actual available cash, leading to scenarios where they struggle to pay owners or reinvest in growth opportunities. This situation is exacerbated by long cash conversion cycles, often averaging around 92 days for several businesses. To overcome these hurdles, brands must identify ways to optimize their cash flow and align their operations with their financial strategies.
Adapting Strategies for Growth
In response to the evolving market conditions, brands are encouraged to re-evaluate their growth strategies and embrace incremental changes rather than seeking dramatic shifts. Successful companies are those that illustrate a deep understanding of their financial metrics and are willing to experiment with pricing, supplier relationships, and operational efficiencies to enhance profit margins. Leveraging financial modeling to simulate various scenarios can help businesses set realistic targets and enable departments to focus on driving specific key performance indicators. As a result, establishing a framework that prioritizes cash availability and margin enhancement can lead to long-term sustainability in a competitive landscape.
Margins are shrinking, debt is rising, and ecommerce brands are feeling the squeeze. In this episode of the Podcast, we dive deep into the financial realities facing DTC brands in 2025. Is the ecommerce game still worth playing? Or has the landscape shifted in ways that make profitability harder than ever?
Joining Taylor are Lio from Finaloop and Drew from Iris Finance, two of the sharpest financial minds in the space, to break down the data, trends, and what it means for your business. We’ll cover:
The latest financial benchmarks for 8-figure brands
Why revenue is up, but profitability is down
How rising debt levels are impacting growth
The path forward for brands trying to survive and thrive
Practical strategies to protect your margins and improve cash flow
If you’re running an ecommerce business, this is a must-watch. Don’t let the market catch you off guard—stay ahead of the curve.