Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

The Conclave, Sinners, and Negotiation Tips

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May 1, 2025
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ANECDOTE

Hiring Luck vs System

  • Maria Konnikova hired her assistant Jacob on a whim after a brief 10-minute interview.
  • This gamble paid off but she advises to rely on systems and tools rather than luck for hiring.
INSIGHT

Papal Conclave Decision Dynamics

  • The papal conclave uses secret ballots, sequesters cardinals, and requires a two-thirds majority to elect the pope.
  • The process resembles American political party brokered conventions with complex signaling and coalition-building dynamics.
INSIGHT

Voting Pressure Despite Secrecy

  • Handwritten secret ballots in an open room can be identifiable, limiting true anonymity.
  • Psychological pressure and recognition of handwriting likely influence voting despite supposed secrecy.
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