Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those important things are. And, they follow up on their Super Bowl prop bet – were there tears during the National Anthem? (They disagree – weigh in below.) Plus, Nate updates us on his housing search, and Pushkin+ subscribers get advice about how to pick a doctor. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This engaging discussion dives into the unexpected risks of air travel versus everyday activities, exposing our biases in risk assessment. The hosts humorously dissect alcohol consumption and its health implications while reflecting on gambling and personal stories. They share insights on Super Bowl prop bets, like whether the coin toss leans towards heads or tails, and debate if the national anthem will spark tears from players. The conversation blends entertaining anecdotes with sharp analysis, making risk assessment both relatable and thought-provoking.

Dive into the world of artificial intelligence as the hosts dissect its national and personal implications, addressing the competitive landscape shaped by players like China's DeepSeek. They also tackle listener questions about poker, offering tips on winning during friendly games and the importance of reading your opponents. Whether discussing the regulatory challenges of AI or mastering casual poker strategies, expect a blend of insightful commentary and practical advice.

The podcast dives into Trump’s strategic maneuvers for a potential second term, exploring themes like distraction and executive action. Key discussions include the implications of his controversial decisions, the challenges facing Democrats in this shifting landscape, and the tech world's influence on politics. The conversation takes a light-hearted turn with personal driving anecdotes, while also critiquing the misuse of presidential pardons. As they navigate this political maze, the hosts blend humor with insightful analysis.

Wildfires in California take center stage as the hosts unravel the complex dynamics between insurance markets and homeowner decision-making. They dive into the psychological factors influencing how we assess disaster risks, advocating for proactive planning. A listener's query about the intertwining of the River and the Village prompts a discussion on risk perception. Reflecting on cultural travel insights juxtaposed with the dire realities of climate change, the conversation underscores the urgent need for rational risk assessment in an increasingly unpredictable world.

Nate and Maria dive into bold predictions for 2025, from volatile Bitcoin forecasts to the potential of Elon Musk becoming the first trillionaire. They explore the unpredictable realm of poker winnings and the emotional challenges players face. The duo also discusses the influence of cognitive biases on public perception, using the Golden Globes as an example. Amid pop culture chatter, they tackle TikTok's uncertain future and reflect on healthcare innovations. Will skinny jeans make a comeback? Tune in for their lively takes!

Henry Rich, a serial entrepreneur and head of the Oberon Restaurant Group, shares his insights from navigating the tumultuous waters of the restaurant industry. He delves into learning from failure and the importance of making well-informed decisions that account for future implications. Rich discusses the balance of financial and emotional investments in entrepreneurship, the necessity of sustainability, and how parenting has shaped his views on risk management. His journey emphasizes adaptability and the need for a clear purpose in overcoming challenges.

The hosts explore the pitfalls of black and white thinking, using Luigi Mangione's insights to highlight how social media platforms like Bluesky and X can create harmful bubbles. They dive into the shock of the reigning chess champion's unexpected loss, discussing the psychology behind high-stakes choking. The conversation flows into the mental and physical dynamics of poker tournaments, emphasizing how fatigue impacts decision-making. It's a blend of critical thinking and personal anecdotes that illuminate the intricacies of competition and social media.

The hosts hand out their first annual Riskies awards, celebrating the best and worst decisions of 2024. Highlights include a daring trader's 'Hero Call' and a political blunder. They dive into cognitive biases impacting political choices, like the sunk cost fallacy, while also exploring notable moves in sports betting. Plus, there's a light-hearted poker update and a fascinating discussion on the cognitive benefits of learning multiple languages. It's a blend of strategy, insight, and entertainment!

Dive into a vibrant discussion about Hunter Biden's pardon and the complex world of political accountability. The hosts explore game theory's role in holiday gift-giving, emphasizing thoughtful presents over mere materialism. Personal anecdotes reveal how to select meaningful gifts for different personalities, while quirky tales add humor to the subject. Discover strategies for navigating the challenges of choosing the right gift, fostering real connections, and even learn about a fun poker meetup in Las Vegas!