Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Pushkin Industries
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
Mentioned books
Jul 24, 2025 • 1h 1min
You Play Better When You’re Having Fun (with Leo Margets and Erik Seidel)
In this engaging conversation, Leo Margets—historic poker player and trailblazer—shares how having fun enhances her game, reflecting on her landmark achievement at the WSOP. Erik Seidel, a revered Hall of Famer, discusses the unique camaraderie within poker while emphasizing his 'no suffering' rule. The duo dives into the psychological battles of high-stakes play, the unpredictability of tournaments, and the importance of community support. They inspire with anecdotes of personal growth and strategic evolution in the ever-changing world of poker.
Jul 17, 2025 • 40min
The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies.
Dive into the thrilling world of the World Series of Poker, where strategy meets psychology under immense pressure. Discover how players negotiate emotional fatigue and the ripple effects of their decisions. Switch gears to examine the complex conspiracy theories surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, questioning what’s real versus speculation. Engage in humorous banter about the absurdity of some conspiracies and the challenges of trusting news in a polarized landscape. It's a thought-provoking blend of poker tactics and critical analysis of modern conspiracies.
119 snips
Jul 10, 2025 • 1h 6min
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)
Join author and journalist David Zweig, known for his book 'An Abundance of Caution', as he dives into the perplexing decision-making during the COVID pandemic. He discusses the controversial school closures and the impact of political polarization on health policies. Zweig reveals how cognitive biases skewed perceptions and the pitfalls of relying on flawed models. The conversation also critiques the misuse of the precautionary principle and highlights ethical concerns surrounding vulnerable populations, all while reflecting on lessons learned for future public health crises.
18 snips
Jul 3, 2025 • 51min
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities
At the Aspen Ideas Festival, hosts dive into the recent scandal at the World Series of Poker and its implications for sportsmanship. They highlight Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York's Democratic primary, reflecting on the engagement of younger voters and the strategies that worked. The importance of clear communication about probabilities is explored, especially regarding political and environmental issues. They also tackle misconceptions in probability language and the potential impacts of emerging leadership on future elections.
18 snips
Jun 26, 2025 • 43min
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment
Trump's military strikes on Iran spark a discussion about understanding complex geopolitical situations without bias. The conversation dives into the shifting dynamics of nuclear threats and the unpredictability of leadership in global conflicts. In a lighter tone, they shift to the World Series of Poker, exploring strategies and controversies like angle shooting. The blend of serious topics with gaming insights encourages listeners to maintain a nuanced perspective on both international relations and poker performances.
Jun 24, 2025 • 44min
Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Can game theory really change the outcome of a World Cup? The hosts dive into whether paying to escape political corruption is a viable strategy. They also explore why we might ignore winning life tactics due to embarrassment. The conversation highlights the fascinating overlap between poker strategies and decision-making in sports and politics. With humor, they tackle big questions about data privacy and the nuances of emotional discipline in high-stakes environments. Prepare for unexpected insights and thought-provoking discussions!
22 snips
Jun 19, 2025 • 44min
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions
The discussion kicks off with highlights from the World Series of Poker, where strategies and profitability take center stage. Then, the complexities of ranked choice voting are examined, especially in the context of New York City's primaries. The hosts dive into how this system affects voter choice and candidate dynamics. Wrapping up, insights from a recent conference reveal growing skepticism about the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, questioning its societal impact and the risks it poses to the job market.
Jun 12, 2025 • 43min
This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different
Tim Sunstock, an amateur poker player, joins Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova as they discuss the 2025 World Series of Poker. They dive into a crucial rule change that's shifting strategies and the impact of the WSOP+ app on gameplay. Tim shares insights from his journey in tournament play, including the evolution from cash games and the psychological challenges faced during high-stakes events. They also reflect on their early experiences at the WSOP, emphasizing adaptability and the importance of reading individual players rather than relying on stereotypes.
30 snips
Jun 5, 2025 • 46min
An Elon Musk Report Card
Delve into Elon Musk's controversial ties with the Trump administration and how it reshaped his public image. The hosts discuss the dangers of overconfidence in leadership and the balance of luck versus skill in decision-making. Explore the implications of Musk's political choices for American democracy and the criticisms against his influence. The conversation also touches on electoral reforms and their potential to transform political culture, emphasizing the intricate dance between governance styles and long-term strategic planning.
17 snips
May 29, 2025 • 51min
Why ChatGPT Sucks at Poker
The hosts dive into why ChatGPT struggles with poker, showcasing the gaps in AI's strategic thinking compared to human intuition. They humorously highlight the AI's errors and discuss broader implications for advancements in artificial intelligence. The conversation also touches on the ongoing Trump vs. Harvard saga, probing the impact of AI on academic admissions and societal dynamics. Finally, they reflect on the challenges of maintaining integrity in gaming and the complexities of free speech in education.
