Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Trump's military strikes on Iran spark a discussion about understanding complex geopolitical situations without bias. The conversation dives into the shifting dynamics of nuclear threats and the unpredictability of leadership in global conflicts. In a lighter tone, they shift to the World Series of Poker, exploring strategies and controversies like angle shooting. The blend of serious topics with gaming insights encourages listeners to maintain a nuanced perspective on both international relations and poker performances.

Can game theory really change the outcome of a World Cup? The hosts dive into whether paying to escape political corruption is a viable strategy. They also explore why we might ignore winning life tactics due to embarrassment. The conversation highlights the fascinating overlap between poker strategies and decision-making in sports and politics. With humor, they tackle big questions about data privacy and the nuances of emotional discipline in high-stakes environments. Prepare for unexpected insights and thought-provoking discussions!

The discussion kicks off with highlights from the World Series of Poker, where strategies and profitability take center stage. Then, the complexities of ranked choice voting are examined, especially in the context of New York City's primaries. The hosts dive into how this system affects voter choice and candidate dynamics. Wrapping up, insights from a recent conference reveal growing skepticism about the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, questioning its societal impact and the risks it poses to the job market.

Tim Sunstock, an amateur poker player, joins Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova as they discuss the 2025 World Series of Poker. They dive into a crucial rule change that's shifting strategies and the impact of the WSOP+ app on gameplay. Tim shares insights from his journey in tournament play, including the evolution from cash games and the psychological challenges faced during high-stakes events. They also reflect on their early experiences at the WSOP, emphasizing adaptability and the importance of reading individual players rather than relying on stereotypes.

Delve into Elon Musk's controversial ties with the Trump administration and how it reshaped his public image. The hosts discuss the dangers of overconfidence in leadership and the balance of luck versus skill in decision-making. Explore the implications of Musk's political choices for American democracy and the criticisms against his influence. The conversation also touches on electoral reforms and their potential to transform political culture, emphasizing the intricate dance between governance styles and long-term strategic planning.

The hosts dive into why ChatGPT struggles with poker, showcasing the gaps in AI's strategic thinking compared to human intuition. They humorously highlight the AI's errors and discuss broader implications for advancements in artificial intelligence. The conversation also touches on the ongoing Trump vs. Harvard saga, probing the impact of AI on academic admissions and societal dynamics. Finally, they reflect on the challenges of maintaining integrity in gaming and the complexities of free speech in education.

The hosts dive into the concept of motivated reasoning, revealing how our biases shape perceptions in politics and Silicon Valley. They discuss President Biden's health and its impacts on his re-election, alongside the challenges of misinformation in elections. The conversation shifts to entrepreneurial fraud, examining how high-profile cases like Theranos blind investors. They also tackle the intrigue of NBA draft lotteries, blending conspiracy theories with competitive dynamics, all while navigating public accountability and credibility.

Nate and Maria kick off with a witty discussion on unexpected predictions, including Maria's win in Monte Carlo. They dive deep into the controversial topic of college students using ChatGPT for cheating. The duo emphasizes the need for colleges to adapt and rethink assessments that encourage genuine learning. Personal anecdotes add humor to their reflections on academic integrity. The conversation also touches on the broader implications of AI in education and the need for innovative teaching strategies.

Vanessa Selbst, a groundbreaking former professional poker player and the first woman to top the Global Poker Index, shares her captivating journey from the poker table to the finance world at Jane Street Capital. She reminisces about the thrill of high-stakes games and the values of integrity in poker, including a humorous incident regarding a giant bag of pennies at her first job. The conversation touches on the challenges of balancing competitive careers and personal identities, revealing insights into decision-making and growth.

The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.