Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Delve into Elon Musk's controversial ties with the Trump administration and how it reshaped his public image. The hosts discuss the dangers of overconfidence in leadership and the balance of luck versus skill in decision-making. Explore the implications of Musk's political choices for American democracy and the criticisms against his influence. The conversation also touches on electoral reforms and their potential to transform political culture, emphasizing the intricate dance between governance styles and long-term strategic planning.

The hosts dive into why ChatGPT struggles with poker, showcasing the gaps in AI's strategic thinking compared to human intuition. They humorously highlight the AI's errors and discuss broader implications for advancements in artificial intelligence. The conversation also touches on the ongoing Trump vs. Harvard saga, probing the impact of AI on academic admissions and societal dynamics. Finally, they reflect on the challenges of maintaining integrity in gaming and the complexities of free speech in education.

The hosts dive into the concept of motivated reasoning, revealing how our biases shape perceptions in politics and Silicon Valley. They discuss President Biden's health and its impacts on his re-election, alongside the challenges of misinformation in elections. The conversation shifts to entrepreneurial fraud, examining how high-profile cases like Theranos blind investors. They also tackle the intrigue of NBA draft lotteries, blending conspiracy theories with competitive dynamics, all while navigating public accountability and credibility.

Nate and Maria kick off with a witty discussion on unexpected predictions, including Maria's win in Monte Carlo. They dive deep into the controversial topic of college students using ChatGPT for cheating. The duo emphasizes the need for colleges to adapt and rethink assessments that encourage genuine learning. Personal anecdotes add humor to their reflections on academic integrity. The conversation also touches on the broader implications of AI in education and the need for innovative teaching strategies.

Vanessa Selbst, a groundbreaking former professional poker player and the first woman to top the Global Poker Index, shares her captivating journey from the poker table to the finance world at Jane Street Capital. She reminisces about the thrill of high-stakes games and the values of integrity in poker, including a humorous incident regarding a giant bag of pennies at her first job. The conversation touches on the challenges of balancing competitive careers and personal identities, revealing insights into decision-making and growth.

The next pope will be chosen through a ritualized process involving secret ballots, smoke signals, and a lock-in at the Sistine Chapel. Nate and Maria talk about how the papal conclave works, and what it has to teach us about group decision-making and the dynamics of secrecy. They also discuss the studio deal for the new movie Sinners, and share their own top negotiating tips. Plus, they play a game of Would You Rather. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver  Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows.  Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recent controversies highlight the Trump administration's aggressive immigration policies, particularly a case of deportation without legal protections. The discussion emphasizes the ethical and legal ramifications of undermining due process. Emotional topics like immigration may influence public opinion more effectively than abstract concepts like tariffs. The conversation also touches on political messaging strategies and the long-term consequences of funding cuts to science and education, raising concerns about institutional integrity and future governance.

The discussion dives into AI 2027, a report brimming with both hopeful and alarming predictions for our future. Topics include the threat of rogue AI misleading humans and the impact of US-China relations on technology's evolution. With debates on ethical AI, the potential for dystopian scenarios, and the risks of misinformation, the hosts dissect how human nature complicates our relationship with AI. They also highlight the challenges of political governance in exchanging innovative ideas and the delicate balance between AI's promises and perils.

Nate and Maria delve into the implications of Trump's latest tariffs, unpacking their impact on the market and consumer pricing. They blend light-hearted sports commentary with serious insights on potential recession indicators and the Federal Reserve's challenges. The discussion highlights bipartisan struggles in Congress regarding tariff legislation and the resulting effects on businesses and consumer behavior. Additionally, they emphasize the importance of individual actions in advocating for better trade policies amidst economic uncertainty.

In a lively discussion, the hosts dive into the tensions between the Ivy League and Trump, debating the need for schools to defend academic freedom. They also tackle the bankruptcy of 23andMe, exploring the privacy risks of sharing genetic data. The conversation shifts to the ethics of personal testing and the societal implications of genetic information. Finally, they emphasize the value of time over money, highlighting the importance of balancing work with personal enjoyment and making thoughtful decisions.