Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Pushkin Industries
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
Mentioned books
19 snips
Aug 14, 2025 • 45min
What’s the Optimal Personality for AI?
The hosts dive into the launch of GPT-5, highlighting its improved speed and user-selectable personalities. They discuss the challenges of AI reliability, emphasizing the need for human oversight in its outputs. Data privacy risks are examined, stressing the importance of safeguarding personal information. The conversation shifts to the geopolitical implications of U.S.-China tech trade, sparked by a new Nvidia deal. The episode wraps up with entertaining insights on the nature of AI accountability in a world of evolving technology.
Aug 12, 2025 • 39min
Grand Theft Automated: How to Save a Trillion Lives from Cautionary Tales
Dive into the world of radical philanthropy where altruism meets moral philosophy. Discover the duality of Sam Bankman-Fried—a potential humanitarian or a con artist. Journey from Wall Street to crypto, reflecting on ambition and security. Explore leadership struggles in startups and the ethics of investing for future generations. Engage with the controversial intersection of politics and funding in Oregon, and grapple with the instincts that shape our altruistic behaviors. This thrilling discussion reveals the complexities behind giving and the motives that drive it.
42 snips
Jul 31, 2025 • 40min
America’s New AI Strategy
This discussion dives into the recently introduced U.S. AI Action Plan, highlighting its mixed reception. The hosts explore the race against China in AI development and the inherent biases in AI models. They'll unpack the battle between open-source and proprietary frameworks, emphasizing the complexities of increasing AI transparency. Celebrity poker dynamics are likened to AI competition, while the ethical challenges and safety concerns in AI development raise important questions about the future of technology.
Jul 24, 2025 • 1h 1min
You Play Better When You’re Having Fun (with Leo Margets and Erik Seidel)
In this engaging conversation, Leo Margets—historic poker player and trailblazer—shares how having fun enhances her game, reflecting on her landmark achievement at the WSOP. Erik Seidel, a revered Hall of Famer, discusses the unique camaraderie within poker while emphasizing his 'no suffering' rule. The duo dives into the psychological battles of high-stakes play, the unpredictability of tournaments, and the importance of community support. They inspire with anecdotes of personal growth and strategic evolution in the ever-changing world of poker.
Jul 17, 2025 • 40min
The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies.
Dive into the thrilling world of the World Series of Poker, where strategy meets psychology under immense pressure. Discover how players negotiate emotional fatigue and the ripple effects of their decisions. Switch gears to examine the complex conspiracy theories surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, questioning what’s real versus speculation. Engage in humorous banter about the absurdity of some conspiracies and the challenges of trusting news in a polarized landscape. It's a thought-provoking blend of poker tactics and critical analysis of modern conspiracies.
119 snips
Jul 10, 2025 • 1h 6min
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)
Join author and journalist David Zweig, known for his book 'An Abundance of Caution', as he dives into the perplexing decision-making during the COVID pandemic. He discusses the controversial school closures and the impact of political polarization on health policies. Zweig reveals how cognitive biases skewed perceptions and the pitfalls of relying on flawed models. The conversation also critiques the misuse of the precautionary principle and highlights ethical concerns surrounding vulnerable populations, all while reflecting on lessons learned for future public health crises.
18 snips
Jul 3, 2025 • 51min
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities
At the Aspen Ideas Festival, hosts dive into the recent scandal at the World Series of Poker and its implications for sportsmanship. They highlight Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York's Democratic primary, reflecting on the engagement of younger voters and the strategies that worked. The importance of clear communication about probabilities is explored, especially regarding political and environmental issues. They also tackle misconceptions in probability language and the potential impacts of emerging leadership on future elections.
18 snips
Jun 26, 2025 • 43min
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment
Trump's military strikes on Iran spark a discussion about understanding complex geopolitical situations without bias. The conversation dives into the shifting dynamics of nuclear threats and the unpredictability of leadership in global conflicts. In a lighter tone, they shift to the World Series of Poker, exploring strategies and controversies like angle shooting. The blend of serious topics with gaming insights encourages listeners to maintain a nuanced perspective on both international relations and poker performances.
Jun 24, 2025 • 44min
Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Can game theory really change the outcome of a World Cup? The hosts dive into whether paying to escape political corruption is a viable strategy. They also explore why we might ignore winning life tactics due to embarrassment. The conversation highlights the fascinating overlap between poker strategies and decision-making in sports and politics. With humor, they tackle big questions about data privacy and the nuances of emotional discipline in high-stakes environments. Prepare for unexpected insights and thought-provoking discussions!
22 snips
Jun 19, 2025 • 44min
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions
The discussion kicks off with highlights from the World Series of Poker, where strategies and profitability take center stage. Then, the complexities of ranked choice voting are examined, especially in the context of New York City's primaries. The hosts dive into how this system affects voter choice and candidate dynamics. Wrapping up, insights from a recent conference reveal growing skepticism about the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, questioning its societal impact and the risks it poses to the job market.
