Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova The Democrats Are Folding on the Shutdown
10 snips
Nov 12, 2025 Senate Democrats have made surprising concessions during the shutdown, losing critical health care subsidies and potentially their momentum. Nate and Maria dissect the political fallout, particularly for Chuck Schumer's leadership. They explore the impact of recent elections and discuss why healthcare messaging failed to resonate with voters. Using poker analogies, they highlight the risks of political strategy. Finally, they debate the challenges facing new leaders like Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani and what issues should dominate the Democratic agenda.
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Momentum Lost In Shutdown Capitulation
- Democrats had a rare electoral moment but then largely surrendered strategic advantage in the shutdown.
- Nate argues caving on SNAP and health subsidies squandered a clear political opportunity.
SNAP Suspension Shifted Public Opinion
- Suspending SNAP benefits produced a notable rise in Trump's disapproval and public backlash.
- Nate links that policy move to tangible voter pain that Democrats could have exploited.
Only Defend Positions You Can Execute
- Play a long-term strategic game and be prepared to execute multi-street tactics, not just initial stands.
- If you won't follow through with creative plays, don't defend thin positions in the first place.
