Curious Worldview Tom Chivers | It's Bayes All The Way Down... Probability & Bayes Theorem
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Jul 9, 2024 In this engaging discussion, science writer Tom Chivers explores Bayes' theorem and its importance in understanding probability and decision-making. He highlights the interplay between Keynesian economics and Bayesian thinking, illustrating practical applications like medical testing and super forecasting. Chivers critiques misconceptions surrounding COVID-19 statistics and emphasizes the necessity of informed choices amid uncertainty. He also touches on the role of Bayesian principles in AI and the challenges of accurately interpreting probabilities in legal contexts.
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Keynes Connection
- Tom Chivers reveals John Maynard Keynes as his great-great uncle.
- He wasn't sure whether to include this detail in his book.
Keynes and Bayesian Priors
- Keynes grappled with Bayes' theorem, particularly the challenge of defining "priors."
- He discussed the possibility of an "ignorant prior," where no pre-existing knowledge exists.
Academic Lineage
- Beyond Keynes, Chivers' great-grandfather, A.V. Hill, was a Nobel laureate and humanitarian.
- He aided Jewish scientists fleeing Germany before World War II.