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Tom Chivers | It's Bayes All The Way Down... Probability & Bayes Theorem

Curious Worldview

CHAPTER

Exploring Fat-Tailed Distributions and Predictive Probability

This chapter delves into the nature of probability, emphasizing fat-tailed distributions over the conventional normal distributions. It examines how this perspective influences the forecasting of rare yet impactful events, advocating for a realistic approach to risk assessment and prediction.

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