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Tom Chivers | It's Bayes All The Way Down... Probability & Bayes Theorem

Curious Worldview

CHAPTER

Navigating Probability and Decision-Making

This chapter explores the relationship between expected value, probability, and decision-making, focusing on Bayesian thinking and its practical applications. Through examples like gambling, medical tests, and super forecasting, it illustrates how updating prior probabilities with new information can refine judgments and predictions. The conversation emphasizes the transformative nature of Bayesian principles in daily life and their role in shaping more informed, flexible approaches to understanding knowledge and making decisions.

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