

Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond
16 snips Nov 5, 2024
Skanda Amarnath leads Employ America, offering insights on the economic landscape, while Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro dives into market behaviors. Prediction markets expert Zvi Mowshowitz discusses electoral forecasts and volatility. Brad Setser from the Council on Foreign Relations shares thoughts on 'unhealthy globalization' and its implications for the next president. The conversation is rich with lively banter on U.S.-China relations, market dynamics, and the intersection of policy uncertainty and investment strategies as the nation braces for election results.
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Prediction Market Accuracy
- Prediction markets aggregate information like polls and projections.
- They offer the best predictions short of having actual ballot counts.
Post-Election Betting
- Zvi Mowshowitz profited from Trump bets after Biden's 2020 win.
- This highlights the market's delayed reaction to confirmed election results.
Trump Trade Drivers
- The "Trump trade" in fixed income was likely driven by positive economic data, not solely by Trump.
- Strong jobs numbers and retail sales coincided with increased Trump win probability.