In 2011, then-Vice President Biden had a front row seat to a bruising debt ceiling standoff between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner. That fight arguably derailed the Obama presidency and the nascent economic recovery. After that experience, Biden and his team had insisted that this time they would not negotiate over a debt ceiling increase. Yet here we are, and the current administration is doing exactly that. According to the Treasury Department, we're just days away from the so called "X-date" (when a US default would occur) and both the White House and new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have been debating what conditions a hike in the debt ceiling should come with. So how did they get into this situation? And what were the other options? On this episode we speak with Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, and Arnab Datta, senior counsel of Employ America, about the current state of play and how it might have been avoided.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director at Employ America, share their expert insights on the current economic landscape. They discuss the implications of surprising 3% GDP growth, potential slowdowns in consumer spending, and challenges in the housing market. The duo also examines inflation trends influenced by wage growth and energy prices while diving into the role of upcoming elections on economic forecasts. Their perspectives offer investors useful strategies for navigating uncertainty.

Exploring the intricacies of measuring inflation through CPI and PCE metrics, and why the Fed favors PCE. The differences between core CPI and core PCE readings. Challenges in tracking prices for CPI and complexities in estimating core PCE inflation. Comparing the nuances of core PCE and CPI indexes. Discussing the impact of wage growth, commodity supply issues, and equity market returns on inflation measures.

Skanda Amarnath leads Employ America, offering insights on the economic landscape, while Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro dives into market behaviors. Prediction markets expert Zvi Mowshowitz discusses electoral forecasts and volatility. Brad Setser from the Council on Foreign Relations shares thoughts on 'unhealthy globalization' and its implications for the next president. The conversation is rich with lively banter on U.S.-China relations, market dynamics, and the intersection of policy uncertainty and investment strategies as the nation braces for election results.

Arnab Datta, an expert in infrastructure policy, and Skanda Amarnath, a macroeconomic policy specialist, dive into the role of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in stabilizing oil markets. They propose a novel idea: leveraging the SPR strategically to support American industry and manage oil price volatility. The discussion highlights the historical underutilization of the SPR, the impact of geopolitical events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and innovative strategies for future oil acquisitions. They also explore how intelligent policy advocacy can influence market dynamics.