

Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on This Moment in Macro
125 snips Aug 15, 2025
Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America and a macroeconomics expert, dives deep into today’s perplexing economic landscape. He discusses the tension between persistent inflation and a sluggish job market. The growth of the AI sector and its impact on traditional industries adds another layer of complexity. Skanda also highlights the pressing issues surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and the challenges posed by political pressures. With the Jackson Hole conference on the horizon, he unpacks the critical questions facing policymakers.
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PPI Signals Inflation Risks Persist
- The hot PPI shows the inflationary side remains present and likely lifts Fed inflation gauges.
- That raises the risk that recent progress on core inflation may be reversing and complicates policy choices.
Labor Momentum Matters As Much As Starting Point
- Starting points and momentum both matter for the Fed's reaction function; a strong labor starting point tempers concerns.
- But weak recent job-growth momentum makes the policy path ambiguous and keeps September on the table.
Tariffs Plus Deficits Can Create 'Stagflation Light'
- Trade frictions plus large deficits can create an inflationary cocktail by adding costs while boosting nominal demand.
- That mix can produce a 'stagflation light' with weaker job momentum but still-elevated prices.