Melissa Otto, Head of TMT Research at Visible Alpha, shares insights on Big Tech's 2025 landscape, discussing upcoming challenges and an anticipated product upgrade cycle. Julie van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten, analyzes changing consumer behaviors, emphasizing the impact of early holiday shopping and value-driven purchases. They explore the evolving dynamics between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores, and how retailers must adapt to meet the demands of savvy consumers, particularly Gen Z.
The podcast highlights the disparity in performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks, attributing it to economic sentiment and interest rate fluctuations.
Forecasts for 2025 indicate a moderate 9% earnings growth, underscoring the importance of stable economic conditions for achieving robust market performance.
Deep dives
Investment Potential of Robotics and AI ETFs
The GlobalX Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF, known by the ticker BOTZ, represents a strategic opportunity to invest in companies that leverage robotics and AI across various industries, including healthcare and industrials. This ETF aims to capitalize on the ongoing disruption caused by technology in these sectors, providing investors with exposure to a rapidly evolving market. However, potential investors should be aware of the inherent risks associated with such investments, including the possibility of losing principal and being affected by the volatile nature of technology companies. Before making any investment decisions, it's crucial to assess the fund's objectives, risks, charges, and expenses as outlined in its prospectus.
Market Divergence and Economic Influences
The significant divergence between the performance of the S&P 500 and smaller company indices poses concerns for investors. While the S&P has risen by 26%, smaller indices like the Russell 2000 have lagged, influenced largely by shifts in interest rates and economic sentiment. As interest rates fluctuate, specifically the 10-year rate, there tends to be increased apprehension about smaller businesses' performance, leading to a narrowing market where only a few large companies continue to excel. This pattern suggests a market heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, which could change as interest rates stabilize heading into 2025.
Outlook for Small Capitalization Stocks
The forecast for small-cap stocks in the coming year is optimistic, particularly due to a potential uptick in mergers and acquisitions. Changes in the political landscape are predicted to catalyze a more active M&A environment, benefitting smaller companies that are often targets for acquisition. As investor confidence builds and deals begin to finalize, small caps may see their performance improve relative to larger firms. Furthermore, as AI and productivity gains expand, profit margins for these smaller firms could also increase, enhancing their competitiveness in the market.
Market Performance and Earnings Growth Expectations
Projected earnings growth for the market in 2025 appears moderate, with estimates suggesting around a 9% increase, which is more conservative compared to broader market expectations. Factors contributing to this outlook include the continuing necessity for stable economic conditions and the lack of significant recessive indicators in the near future. Analysts caution against overly optimistic earnings growth expectations, emphasizing that without substantial economic reacceleration, achieving higher earnings growth, especially in cyclical sectors, may prove challenging. Therefore, a focus on consistent earnings growth strategies and well-managed investment portfolios will be critical for navigating the market ahead.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & Jess MentonDecember 27th, 2024 Featuring:
Robert Teeter, Chief Investment Strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management, on market observations from 2024 and what to expect from equities in 2025
Melissa Otto, Head: TMT Research at Visible Alpha, discusses expectations for Big Tech in 2025 and some of the most pressing questions the sector faces heading into the new year
Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets, talks about the macroeconomic picture in the US and abroad and the outlook for inflation and the US labor market
Julie van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten, on consumer behavior this holiday season and consumer strength heading into the new year