AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Reacting to Geopolitics
- Only react to geopolitical events if they undermine your fundamental investment thesis.
- Focus on identifying major macro shifts (geopolitical beta) rather than short-term noise (geopolitical alpha).
Geopolitical Alpha
- Geopolitical alpha often comes from betting against market overreactions to perceived risks.
- Look for situations where markets overprice geopolitical risks, then analyze the fundamentals.
Shorting Oil
- Marko Papic shorted oil in May 2022 due to a perceived overreaction to the EU oil embargo against Russia.
- He reasoned that the embargo was a PR effort and demand was falling, indicated by Chinese non-oil imports.