Nikonomics - The Economics of Small Business

241 - The Freight Market Is Collapsing, Here's What You Should Do to Save Your Business with Craig Fuller

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Oct 8, 2025

Craig Fuller, the Founder and CEO of FreightWaves and Sonar, shares alarming insights about the collapsing freight market and its implications for small businesses. He highlights a staggering loss of seven years of growth in the goods economy, emphasizing that critical sectors are being overlooked by Wall Street. Craig explains why freight data is a crucial leading economic indicator and offers practical advice for entrepreneurs on cost control and preparing for tougher times ahead. Expect a rough holiday season as recovery remains uncertain.

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INSIGHT

Goods Economy Has Regressed Seven Years

Freight volumes are down sharply, effectively erasing seven years of goods-economy growth.
Craig Fuller says goods volume is ~15–17% lower year-over-year and back to 2018 levels.

INSIGHT

Decision-Makers Miss Freight Signals

Policymakers and Wall Street are largely disconnected from the freight-reliant goods economy.
Fuller argues Fed, Congress, and investors focus on GDP and AI stocks, overlooking transport distress.

INSIGHT

Retail Masks Broader Goods Weakness

Retail deliveries are holding up while heavy goods sectors collapse.
Fuller notes city deliveries up ~7% YoY, masking wider manufacturing and construction weakness.

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Join me, Nik (https://x.com/CoFoundersNik), as I interview Craig Fuller (https://x.com/freightalley), CEO of FreightWaves and Sonar, for a critical update on the freight market collapse and what it means for small business owners and entrepreneurs in 2025.

Last time, I called Craig "Nostradamus" for his spot-on predictions about tariffs and supply chain disruptions—and this time, the data is even more alarming. We analyze the OTBI index (Outbound Tender Volume Index), which tracks trucking volumes and shipping activity across the US economy, and the numbers are flashing red: we've lost seven years of economic growth in the goods economy.

Craig breaks down how the collapse in critical sectors like manufacturing, construction, housing, energy, and transportation logistics—which together employ 35 million Americans—is being completely ignored by Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and Congress. While AI stocks and the Magnificent Seven drive the stock market to all-time highs, the Main Street economy is showing clear recession warning signs.

This episode explains why freight data is the ultimate leading economic indicator, often predicting recessions 6-9 months before they hit (a principle known as Dow Theory). We discuss what the 2007-2008 financial crisis can teach us, why consumer spending is masking deeper problems, and most importantly—what you should do right now as a business owner or entrepreneur.

Questions This Episode Answers:

How severely have US shipping volumes and freight activity declined, and what does this mean for the real economy?

Why are the Freight Market and OTBI index critical leading indicators often ignored by Wall Street, the Fed, and Washington DC?

As a small business owner or entrepreneur, what specific actions should I take right now to prepare for an economic slowdown or recession?

Why is a downturn actually a prime time for business acquisitions, consolidation, and securing undervalued assets?

What is Dow Theory, and how does transportation data predict broader economic recessions?

How do tariff policies and trade tensions with China impact domestic logistics and supply chains?

What's the disconnect between AI stock speculation (Mag-7) and the goods-producing economy?

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This week we covered:
00:00 Economic Growth and Market Predictions

02:53 Logistics and Supply Chain Insights

05:45 The State of the Goods Economy

09:04 Job Market and Employment Trends

11:59 Small Business Strategies in a Downturn

14:55 Opportunities in a Recession

18:09 The Role of Government and Economic Policy

21:03 Future Market Predictions and Indicators

23:57 The Impact of Freight on the Economy

26:49 Understanding Supply Chain Dynamics

30:08 Cultural and Historical Context of Logistics

33:03 Conclusion and Key Takeaways