241 - The Freight Market Is Collapsing, Here's What You Should Do to Save Your Business with Craig Fuller
Nikonomics - The Economics of Small Business
Potential Catalysts and Signs of Recovery
Nik asks about catalysts; Craig discusses historical precedents, lack of a clear trigger, and what demand recovery would look like.
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Join me, Nik (https://x.com/CoFoundersNik), as I interview Craig Fuller (https://x.com/freightalley), CEO of FreightWaves and Sonar, for a critical update on the freight market collapse and what it means for small business owners and entrepreneurs in 2025.
Last time, I called Craig "Nostradamus" for his spot-on predictions about tariffs and supply chain disruptions—and this time, the data is even more alarming. We analyze the OTBI index (Outbound Tender Volume Index), which tracks trucking volumes and shipping activity across the US economy, and the numbers are flashing red: we've lost seven years of economic growth in the goods economy.
Craig breaks down how the collapse in critical sectors like manufacturing, construction, housing, energy, and transportation logistics—which together employ 35 million Americans—is being completely ignored by Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and Congress. While AI stocks and the Magnificent Seven drive the stock market to all-time highs, the Main Street economy is showing clear recession warning signs.
This episode explains why freight data is the ultimate leading economic indicator, often predicting recessions 6-9 months before they hit (a principle known as Dow Theory). We discuss what the 2007-2008 financial crisis can teach us, why consumer spending is masking deeper problems, and most importantly—what you should do right now as a business owner or entrepreneur.
Questions This Episode Answers:
How severely have US shipping volumes and freight activity declined, and what does this mean for the real economy?
Why are the Freight Market and OTBI index critical leading indicators often ignored by Wall Street, the Fed, and Washington DC?
As a small business owner or entrepreneur, what specific actions should I take right now to prepare for an economic slowdown or recession?
Why is a downturn actually a prime time for business acquisitions, consolidation, and securing undervalued assets?
What is Dow Theory, and how does transportation data predict broader economic recessions?
How do tariff policies and trade tensions with China impact domestic logistics and supply chains?
What's the disconnect between AI stock speculation (Mag-7) and the goods-producing economy?
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This week we covered:
00:00 Economic Growth and Market Predictions
02:53 Logistics and Supply Chain Insights
05:45 The State of the Goods Economy
09:04 Job Market and Employment Trends
11:59 Small Business Strategies in a Downturn
14:55 Opportunities in a Recession
18:09 The Role of Government and Economic Policy
21:03 Future Market Predictions and Indicators
23:57 The Impact of Freight on the Economy
26:49 Understanding Supply Chain Dynamics
30:08 Cultural and Historical Context of Logistics
33:03 Conclusion and Key Takeaways
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