Nir And Far: Business, Behaviour and the Brain Hindsight Bias: Why You Make Terrible Life Choices - -Nir And Far
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Feb 26, 2024 
Explore the distortion of hindsight bias and its impact on decision-making. Learn how the human brain evolved for pattern recognition, leading to cognitive biases. Discover strategies to overcome hindsight bias and make better decisions. Dive into the influence of this bias on legal proceedings, emphasizing the importance of clear records.
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Radiology Lawsuit Reveals Hindsight Trap
- A 69-year-old man had a tumor missed on a radiograph three and a half years earlier and later died within 16 months without treatment.
- The patient's lawyers showed the earlier x-ray to other radiologists who could now spot the tumor easily, illustrating hindsight bias in malpractice claims.
Knowing The Outcome Warps Perception
- Hindsight bias makes people believe outcomes were predictable after they happen, altering perception of preceding events.
- This leads us to oversimplify causes and think, "I knew it all along."
Retroactive Certainty Harms Future Choices
- Hindsight bias not only distorts past events but also corrupts future decisions by inflating self-confidence.
- People who think they "knew it all along" stop examining causes and fail to learn from mistakes.