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The Impact of Hindsight Bias on Decision-Making
The chapter explores how hindsight bias distorts perceptions, leading to overestimation of predictive abilities and incorrect assignment of blame or credit. It discusses examples from diverse fields like business, law, medicine, and politics, showcasing the consequences of this bias on decision-making processes. The historical context and research on hindsight bias, including Baruch Fischoff's early work, are examined to understand its persistent nature rooted in cognitive biases.