Michael Lewis, best-selling author known for insightful works like "Moneyball," dives into America's expert problem. He discusses why we struggle to recognize and trust genuine expertise, linking this issue to recent crises, including the pandemic. Lewis highlights the undervaluation of experts in various fields, from medicine to analytics, and examines the erosion of trust in institutions. He also explores potential pathways for rebuilding this trust and valuing diverse perspectives, pushing for greater appreciation of overlooked expertise in society.
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Overlooked Expertise
During the pandemic, highly qualified experts were often overlooked.
Charity Dean, an expert in communicable diseases, wasn't utilized effectively despite her expertise.
insights INSIGHT
Squandering Expertise
America excels at creating knowledge and expertise but struggles to apply it effectively.
This makes us appear less intelligent than we should be, given our resources.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Weatherman woes
Meteorologist James Spann's forecasting accuracy improved over time.
Yet, public grievances increased due to a misunderstanding of probabilistic forecasting.
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The Premonition by Michael Lewis is a gripping account of the individuals who foresaw the impending COVID-19 pandemic and the failures in the American public health system. The book focuses on characters such as Charity Dean, a public health officer, and the 'Gang of Seven,' a group of doctors and scientists who created their own pandemic plan. It highlights their tireless work, the use of computer models to predict viral spread, and the challenges they faced amidst political pressure, financial constraints, and public criticism. The narrative underscores the courage and dedication of these unsung heroes and the need for more proactive approaches to public health preparedness.
The Fifth Risk
Michael Lewis
In *The Fifth Risk*, Michael Lewis delves into the Trump administration’s botched presidential transition, highlighting the consequences of willful ignorance and greed among its leaders. The book explores the critical services managed by the U.S. government, including ensuring food and drug safety, predicting extreme weather events, and tracking black market uranium. Lewis focuses on the Departments of Energy, Agriculture, and Commerce, revealing their often-overlooked roles and the dedicated employees who work within them. The title 'The Fifth Risk' refers to 'project management,' the unforeseen and long-term risks that only a vigilant and committed agency can forecast and prevent. Lewis's narrative is character-driven, featuring interviews with former federal staff members and historical context to illustrate the importance of effective government management and the dangers of short-term solutions[1][4][5].
How to Change
The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be
Katy Milkman
In this ground-breaking book, Katy Milkman reveals a proven path to help readers move from where they are to where they want to be. Drawing on her original research and the work of her world-renowned scientific collaborators, Milkman shares strategic methods for identifying and overcoming common barriers to change, such as impulsivity, procrastination, and forgetfulness. The book offers innovative approaches like 'temptation bundling,' using timely reminders, and creating 'set-it-and-forget-it systems' to make change more achievable. It emphasizes the importance of tailoring solutions to specific roadblocks and using science to stack the deck in favor of successful change.
The Revolt of the Public
And the Reckoning of the West
Martin Gurri
Martin Gurri's "The Revolt of the Public" analyzes the growing disconnect between established elites and the general public, exploring the rise of populism and anti-establishment sentiment. The book examines how the rapid dissemination of information through the internet has empowered ordinary citizens, leading to a challenge to traditional power structures. Gurri argues that the elites' inability to adapt to this changing information landscape has fueled public anger and frustration. The book's central theme is the erosion of trust in institutions and the rise of alternative sources of information and authority. Gurri's analysis offers insights into the underlying causes of political polarization and the challenges facing democratic societies in the digital age.
Sean Illing talks with writer Michael Lewis about why it is that Americans are so good at producing knowledge, but so bad at identifying and utilizing that knowledge — the central issue of the new season of his podcast "Against the Rules." They discuss who counts as an expert, some fundamental impediments to disseminating knowledge, and whether or not there is a possible future where Americans regain their trust in experts, institutions, and each other.
Host: Sean Illing (@seanilling), Interviews Writer, Vox
The Gray Area with Sean Illing 
