Growth Mindset Psychology: The Science of Self-Improvement Radical Uncertainty: How to deal with surprises and Black Swan events - w/ Nicolas Vereecke
Jun 6, 2025
Nicolas Vereecke, a reading partner of Nassim Taleb, dives into the concept of Black Swan events—unexpected occurrences that drastically reshape our reality. He discusses how our desire for predictability can blind us to life's surprises. Instead of trying to forecast every turn, he emphasizes the importance of resilience, advising on strategies for navigating financial uncertainty. Vereecke explores how to prepare for worst-case scenarios, making a case for adaptability over prediction, and differentiates between the stable mediocristan and unpredictable extremistan.
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Nature of Black Swan Events
- Black Swan events are major surprises that have huge impacts and are rationalized in hindsight as expected.
- These unpredictable events dominate society and shape history more than gradual changes.
Turkey Analogy for Risk
- The turkey analogy illustrates trusting a stable environment until the day of sudden disaster.
- This shows how we misguidedly feel safer the longer a risk hasn't occurred, just before it's unavoidable.
Investment Strategy Against Black Swans
- Allocate 85-90% of assets to very low-risk investments for safety.
- Use 10-15% to invest in startups with potential for huge upside as exposure to positive Black Swans.
