Intro

This chapter explores the concept of 'Black Swan' events—unforeseeable occurrences that significantly impact our lives and are often rationalized after the fact. It emphasizes the challenge of predicting risks and offers insights on navigating uncertainty, drawing from Nassim Taleb's ideas and introducing the host's new show on historical innovations.

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Episode notes

Ever felt like life just sucker-punched you out of nowhere? That's exactly what Nassim Taleb calls a Black Swan event.

Most people think they can predict the future by looking at patterns. They study charts, analyze trends, and feel safe in their little bubble of certainty.

However, the biggest events that shape our lives—market crashes, pandemics, breakthrough innovations—are the ones nobody sees coming. ..

Taleb argues we're all like turkeys getting fed every day, thinking tomorrow will be the same, until suddenly it's Thanksgiving. The real mind-bender? We convince ourselves afterwards that we "should have seen it coming."

This is critical for understanding finance or world events

More than that, it's about how your brain tricks you into thinking you understand a world, that's fundamentally unpredictable.