The Bank of England is struggling to control high inflation in the UK due to wage demands not keeping up with inflation and supply-side issues with high energy prices and disruptions to global supply chains.
The rising interest rates to control inflation will negatively impact homeowners with mortgages, leading to financial strain and reduced spending on non-essential items, affecting the economy's demand.
There are potential political consequences of the mortgage crisis, including unrest among homeowners and uncertainty over whether the Tories or Labour will address the unequal distribution of the crisis's impact through effective solutions like the Green New Deal and a big green state.
Deep dives
Interest rates and inflation
The podcast explores how interest rates are raised to control inflation. By increasing interest rates, people borrow less money, leading to less money in circulation and a slowdown in the economy. The Bank of England believes persistently high inflation in the UK is due to wage demands not keeping up with inflation, leading to a wage-price spiral where companies raise prices to cover higher wages.
Supply-side problems and inflation
The rising inflation is not solely due to excess money but also caused by high energy prices and disruptions to global supply chains, resulting in too few goods. This supply-side problem challenges the wage-price spiral theory, as wages are not keeping up with inflation. The Bank of England is struggling to control inflation and fears a sustained problem, particularly in the UK.
Effect of interest rate rises
The rising interest rates will negatively impact homeowners with mortgages, causing financial strain and reduced disposable income. As fixed-rate mortgages end, borrowers will face higher interest rates, leading to less spending on non-essential items. This decrease in spending can further reduce demand in the economy and tackle inflation, but it disproportionately affects those who can afford it the least.
Political implications of the mortgage crisis
The mortgage crisis could have political consequences, potentially causing unrest among homeowners if their costs significantly increase. While the Tories' electoral prospects may be affected, it's unclear whether they will address the issue or if Labour, with their cautious stance on fiscal policy, will provide any solutions that truly address the unequal distribution of the crisis's impact.
Potential solutions and challenges
Ideas like the Green New Deal and a big green state have been proposed to address both the climate crisis and economic stagnation. However, challenges remain, including issues with state-led investments, budget constraints, and ideological resistance. The state's role in reshaping and repurposing the economy can be debated, but urgent action is needed to tackle climate change and promote sustainable, equitable growth.
As inflation continues to outstrip wage growth for all but the top ten per cent of earners, interest rates look set to keep rising at least until February 2024. The political economist William Davies joins Tom to consider the reasons for high inflation and the Bank of England’s response, what government policies could alleviate the crisis and whether next year’s general election will lead to any significant change.