Peter Turchin — Why Societies Fall Apart (And Why the US May Be Next)
Aug 30, 2023
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Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of cliodynamics, discusses societal integration and disintegration, US political instability predictions, predictability of future events, using statistical patterns to predict societal trends, height as an indicator of biological wellbeing, rise of cancel culture due to elite overproduction, and fragility of complex societies.
Elite overproduction in large-scale societies leads to increased competition for elite positions, resulting in rule-breaking behaviors like cancel culture.
The interplay between structural tendencies and contingent events shapes the course of history, combining predictability and unpredictability.
Monogamy has spread in various societies due to cultural selection, as it promotes societal cohesion, cooperation, and competitiveness against other societies.
Deep dives
Structural Demographic Theory
Structural Demographic Theory explains the cyclical nature of large-scale societies, where periods of integration and harmony are followed by periods of disintegration and instability. Elite overproduction is a key feature of pre-disintegration periods, where there is an excess of elite aspirants competing for limited elite positions. This intense competition leads to rule-breaking and corroding of the social fabric. Elite overproduction can predict phenomena like cancel culture, where individuals strategically attack competitors to increase their own chances. It also correlates with phenomena like the replication crisis in psychology. The degree of polygamy among elites is another factor that affects the duration of integrative periods, with polygamous societies experiencing shorter integrative phases. The practice of rich individuals in Western societies having fewer children may contribute to the stability of those societies by reducing the rate of elite production.
Impact of Elite Overproduction
Elite overproduction in large-scale societies leads to increased competition for elite positions, which can result in rule-breaking behaviors, such as character assassination and cancel culture. This phenomenon can negatively impact the stability and cohesion of societies, as it spreads a culture of attacks and divisions among elites. The competition among elites is fractal in nature, occurring at different levels of elite status. Elite overproduction is also linked to shorter integrative periods in societies, particularly in polygamous societies where rapid reproduction of elites leads to more frequent cycles of disintegration. The practice of rich individuals in Western societies having fewer children may contribute to societal stability by reducing elite overproduction and the associated competition.
Predictability in Society
While the future course of history is not completely predictable, certain aspects of societal dynamics can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. Scientific prediction and the identification of structural trends in human societies can provide insights into the likelihood of certain outcomes. However, specific events that trigger major changes or crises are often contingent and difficult to predict. The interplay between structural tendencies and contingent events shapes the course of history. Human societies exhibit a mixture of predictability and unpredictability, combining gradual and regular developments with unexpected and chaotic events. Understanding these patterns and dynamics is crucial for anticipating and influencing social outcomes in the future.
Limits of Predictability
While some aspects of societal dynamics are predictable, the complexity of human societies and the sensitivity to initial conditions make accurate long-term predictions impossible. Human societies are subject to the sensitivity to initial conditions known as chaos theory, which hampers precise prediction. Additionally, individual agency, free will, and contingent events contribute to an inherent unpredictability of societal outcomes. Attempts to predict specific events with high accuracy are often unattainable due to the limitations of measurement and incomplete empirical knowledge. However, statistical patterns, historical data, and understanding of structural trends can enable predictions with certain probabilities and inform decision-making for better social outcomes.
Monogamy as a result of cultural selection
Monogamy is argued to have spread as a result of cultural selection, with negative societal effects being associated with polygamy. The adoption of monogamy in various societies, such as Turkey, Japan, and China, was driven by the realization that it promotes societal cohesion, cooperation, and competitiveness against other societies.
Lawyers and their role in revolutions
Lawyers have historically played a significant role in revolutions, with many revolutionary leaders and figures coming from the legal profession. In the United States, gaining a law degree is a common path to political office, and the overproduction of lawyers has led to certain challenges. The rise of automation in the legal field further complicates the situation, as 45% of legal tasks can be automated using technologies like Chat GPT 4. Finding productive outlets for the ambitious energy of frustrated lawyers becomes crucial to prevent potential negative consequences.
Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist and one of the founders of cliodynamics — a new, cross-disciplinary field that applies mathematics and big data to test historical theories.
