Structural Demographic Theory

Structural Demographic Theory explains the cyclical nature of large-scale societies, where periods of integration and harmony are followed by periods of disintegration and instability. Elite overproduction is a key feature of pre-disintegration periods, where there is an excess of elite aspirants competing for limited elite positions. This intense competition leads to rule-breaking and corroding of the social fabric. Elite overproduction can predict phenomena like cancel culture, where individuals strategically attack competitors to increase their own chances. It also correlates with phenomena like the replication crisis in psychology. The degree of polygamy among elites is another factor that affects the duration of integrative periods, with polygamous societies experiencing shorter integrative phases. The practice of rich individuals in Western societies having fewer children may contribute to the stability of those societies by reducing the rate of elite production.