The Joe Walker Podcast Peter Turchin — Why Societies Fall Apart (And Why the US May Be Next)
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Aug 30, 2023 Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of cliodynamics, discusses societal integration and disintegration, US political instability predictions, predictability of future events, using statistical patterns to predict societal trends, height as an indicator of biological wellbeing, rise of cancel culture due to elite overproduction, and fragility of complex societies.
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Science of History
- A science of history is possible, even if the future is not perfectly predictable due to chaos and free will.
- We can still find patterns and test theories, like in Cliodynamics, focusing on predictable structural trends and societal dynamics.
Simultaneous Discoveries
- The invention of calculus and the discovery of genes happened nearly simultaneously by multiple individuals.
- This suggests discoveries are driven by collective progress rather than individual genius, making technological advancement somewhat predictable.
Group Dynamics
- Cliodynamics focuses on group-level dynamics, where individual actions often get buffered.
- Individual free will matters less at macro scales unless a person influences large groups, creating macro-level results.