Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist and author of "End Times," brings a unique perspective blending evolutionary biology with historical analysis. He discusses his controversial predictions about political instability in the U.S. leading up to 2020, which eerily came true following a tumultuous year. Turchin explores societal dynamics and cycles of chaos, drawing parallels to current upheavals while emphasizing the crucial role of elites and grassroots movements in shaping the future. His insights shed light on potential crises ahead, particularly around the pivotal year of 2024.

In this engaging conversation, complexity scientist Peter Turchin, expert in Cliodynamics, explores how mathematical principles can illuminate historical patterns of political unrest. He discusses 'elite overproduction,' linking rising inequality to societal disintegration and unrest. Turchin emphasizes the cyclical nature of elite dynamics, the lessons from past revolutions, and the role of collective action in turbulent times. He also touches on the transition to renewable energy and the societal implications of AI, offering insightful avenues for fostering stability.

Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of cliodynamics, discusses societal integration and disintegration, US political instability predictions, predictability of future events, using statistical patterns to predict societal trends, height as an indicator of biological wellbeing, rise of cancel culture due to elite overproduction, and fragility of complex societies.

Jim talks with Peter Turchin about the field he founded, cliodynamics, which applies the scientific method to history. They discuss the meaning & origins of cliodynamics, distinguishing cliodynamics from previous approaches, regularizing historical data, the interface between models & data, average height as a proxy for biological well-being, the Seshat data collection project, observed patterns in collapsing societies, the overproduction of elites, relative vs absolute wage, the wealth pump, relative well-being, a top-heavy social pyramid, defining elites, failed aspirant elites as the raw material for radical movements, why lawyers are the most dangerous profession, the Musk-Zuckerman duel as a sign of increased intra-elite competition, the issue of prediction, the intensification of secessionist sentiment in the U.S., how the British Empire avoided the revolutions of 1848, shutting down the wealth pump, increasing minimum wage, the odds that a revolution would be good for society, and much more. Episode Transcript End Times: Elites, Counter Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, by Peter Turchin Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall, by Peter Turchin War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, by Peter Turchin Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth, by Peter Turchin The True Believer, by Eric Hoffer Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution,  historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown.

Peter Turchin has continued the work of Ibn Khaldun, by elaborating upon Khaldun's hypotheses and testing them against the wealth of historical data that we now possess. By means of a structural demographic analysis of historical empires, Turchin has worked for years to generate mathematical models in order to explain the trends that seem to recur in every complex society. Now, with the data of 10,000 years of human activity on the group level, it may be possible to finally move beyond the preliminary, pseudo-scientific steps of the discipline of history, and proceed into a truly mathematized phase. This is the discipline that Turchin calls "Cliodynamics", after the Muse of history of Ancient Greece. His intention to leave behind the anthropological and archaeological studies that characterized history in the past, and bring mathematics into the field so that we can begin to make predictions. The reason why many have been so resistant to this development is our belief in free will, and the unpredictability of human action. Turchin thinks that this is a mistake, because while individual decisions are often unpredictable at the individual, granular level, at the level of entire populations or demographics, human beings become rather predictable. Quite in line with the cyclical view of history postulated by Plato, Thucydides, or Nietzsche, Turchin brings the math to demonstrate the truth of their ideas: that, in the realm of human history, all returns eternally. For our sources today, we're primarily using Turchin's books: War and Peace and War, Ultrasociety, and a brief dip at the end into the overall idea of Ages of Discord, as well as some references to Secular Cycles by Turchin and Nefedov. We'll also include a number of quotes from Roman historians Livy, Plutarch and others, as we examine the period of the Roman Republic, the chaos of the Late Republic and the transition to the Principate, as explained by Turchin's structural-demographic theory. This should be fun, given that we've already considered these events somewhat through the eyes of Machiavelli. Now, we can approach the subject with more rigor. In my view, Turchin is following in the traditions of these thinkers, but developing their work further. Episode art is Thomas Cole's now famous "Destruction" piece of his cycle, "The Course of Empire".

Subscribe to The Realignment to access our exclusive Q&A episodes and support the show: https://realignment.supercast.com/Peter's 2010 Nature Article: https://www.nature.com/articles/463608aREALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comFoundation for American Innovation: https://www.thefai.org/posts/lincoln-becomes-faiPeter Turchin, author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, joins The Realignment. Peter and Marshall discuss his 2010 prediction that the U.S. would experience significant political turmoil in 2020, the factors that drove 2010-2020s political conflict, why the elite-overproduction phenomenon is one of the strongest determinants of societal health, and the historical precedents of nations remaining unified in the face of the above challenges. 

Peter Turchin, a professor and author specializing in historical societal cycles, joins Bloomberg's experts to discuss America's political landscape. He highlights anti-incumbency sentiments driven by pandemic impacts and inflation, as well as the limited influence of technology and AI on elections. The conversation probes the challenges for democracy, elite overproduction, and the growing threat of civil unrest. Turchin advocates for a societal reconfiguration akin to New Deal principles to address wealth concentration and restore political balance.

Peter Turchin, author of 'End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration', joins the podcast to discuss the causes of political communities falling apart. They explore extreme inequality, wealth redistribution, and the urgency of preventing political disintegration. The speaker also discusses a sense of impending doom and encourages action to prevent the collapse of civilization.

Author Peter Turchin discusses 'End Times', exploring societal collapse, elite overproduction, income disparity in the entertainment industry, low salaries in higher education, and the oversaturation of fields in academia.

Harrison Stetler discusses recent riots in France; Peter Turchin explains why the US is heading for a smashup. Topics include: causes of riots in France, police violence and discrimination, political implications, applying scientific method to history, elite overproduction and revolutionary impulses, decline of American power and potential for crisis.