The Predictability of Political Disintegration

Peter Turchin, a social scientist, discusses his book 'End Times' and his approach to studying history and social systems. He explains how the study of past societies has revealed a recurrent pattern of integrative periods followed by periods of crisis. Turchin identifies three key drivers of societal breakdown: popular immiseration, overproduction of wealthy elites, and overproduction of lower-rank elites. He emphasizes the importance of reversing popular immiseration by aligning wage growth with economic growth. Turchin also suggests increasing taxes on the wealthy, funding infrastructure projects, and creating jobs for overproduced degree holders. He highlights the need for a long-term perspective and cooperation between politicians, opinion influencers, and scientists to bring about necessary reforms.