Pitchfork Economics with Nick Hanauer The path of political disintegration (with Peter Turchin)
Oct 31, 2023
Peter Turchin, author of 'End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration', joins the podcast to discuss the causes of political communities falling apart. They explore extreme inequality, wealth redistribution, and the urgency of preventing political disintegration. The speaker also discusses a sense of impending doom and encourages action to prevent the collapse of civilization.
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Scientific History Analysis
- Peter Turchin applies scientific methods to history for more rigorous explanations of societal events.
- His approach tests competing historical hypotheses with quantitative data for predictive validity.
US Crisis Prediction
- Turchin's models predicted a crisis in the US starting around 2007-08 based on rising social instability indicators.
- The turning point was traced to the late 1970s with worsening inequality and stagnating wages.
Wealth Pump & Elite Overproduction
- Turchin identifies three crisis drivers: popular immiseration, elite overproduction, and counter-elite overproduction.
- Wealth concentration fuels political competition and friction, intensifying societal instability.