#236 Michael Lissack on Anticipatory Agents

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Dec 16, 2025

Michael Lissack, founder of the Second Order Science Foundation and a cybernetics expert, dives into anticipatory agents and their role in understanding complex systems. He explores the intersection of Quantum Bayesianism and anticipatory systems, shedding light on how we interpret meaning in an overwhelming information landscape. Lissack distinguishes between human cognitive limits and large language models, emphasizing the value of dialogue with these agents. He critiques conventional approaches, advocating for a philosophical, process-driven framework to navigate uncertainty.

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INSIGHT

Requisite Variety Is Key To Control

Ashby's Law: control requires controller variety matching the system's variety.
Reducing or mismanaging variety creates fragility or loss of control in organizations and systems.

ANECDOTE

Yogurt Case: Choice Overload Example

Michael Lissack uses the yogurt-in-the-supermarket story to illustrate overwhelmed choice under excess variety.
He recounts asking an approachable stranger for help as a practical coping strategy.

INSIGHT

We Think By Pulling Toward Futures

Humans primarily live by pulling toward future goals rather than only reasoning from past events.
Michael Lissack proposes using 'pull'-based methods to explain phenomena like quantum paradoxes.

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The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.

During this episode, Michael Lissack discusses Anticipatory Agents in Causal Bubbles–a unified theoretical framework that reconciles Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), Robert Rosen's theory of Anticipatory Systems, the causal bubbles interpretation of quantum mechanics, and pragmatic constructivism through Hans Vaihinger's philosophy of 'as if.'

Recording Date: 2 Dec 2025

Research Question: Michael Lissack suggests an interested student or researcher examine how can the continuous process of asking "what gives this symbol, sign, or phrase meaning?" (synecdoche) against the background of the "information abyss" lead to a developed sense of understanding?

Resources:

Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
Anticipatoryagents.com
Anticipatory Agents in Causal Bubbles: Reconciling Quantum Bayesianism, Rosen's Anticipatory Systems, and Pragmatic Constructivism by Michael Lissack
WHAT SCIENTIFIC TERM OR CONCEPT OUGHT TO BE MORE WIDELY KNOWN? Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety by John Naughton
Destruction and Creation by John Boyd (1976)
W. R. Ashby, "Requisite variety and its implications for the control of complex systems," Cybernetica, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 83–99, 1958.

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio: Michael Lissack, the founder and director of the Second Order Science Foundation, has dedicated his academic career to understanding how individuals and organizations can learn and adapt in a rapidly changing world. Lissack's work focuses on the intersection of cognition, communication, and technology, and he has developed innovative approaches to knowledge management, organizational learning, and leadership development. Lissack was the president of American Society for Cybernetics, founder of the Institute for the Study of Coherence and Emergence, and founding editor of the journal Emergence. He has taught at several universities throughout the world, including Erasmus in the Netherlands and Tongji in Shanghai. He holds a D.B.A. in complex systems from Brunel University and Henley Management College.

About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

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