Anticipation vs. Observation

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.

During this episode, Michael Lissack discusses Anticipatory Agents in Causal Bubbles–a unified theoretical framework that reconciles Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), Robert Rosen's theory of Anticipatory Systems, the causal bubbles interpretation of quantum mechanics, and pragmatic constructivism through Hans Vaihinger's philosophy of 'as if.'

Recording Date: 2 Dec 2025

Research Question: Michael Lissack suggests an interested student or researcher examine how can the continuous process of asking "what gives this symbol, sign, or phrase meaning?" (synecdoche) against the background of the "information abyss" lead to a developed sense of understanding?

Resources:

• Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned
  • #7 Randy Rosin on Russia and Applied Cybernetics
  • #72 Noah Komnick on Cybernetics and the Age of Complexity
  • #47 Yaneer Bar-Yam on Complex Systems and the War on Ideals
  • #85 Josh Kerbel on Complexity and Anticipatory Intelligence
• Anticipatoryagents.com
• Anticipatory Agents in Causal Bubbles: Reconciling Quantum Bayesianism, Rosen's Anticipatory Systems, and Pragmatic Constructivism by Michael Lissack
• WHAT SCIENTIFIC TERM OR CONCEPT OUGHT TO BE MORE WIDELY KNOWN? Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety by John Naughton
• Destruction and Creation by John Boyd (1976)
• W. R. Ashby, "Requisite variety and its implications for the control of complex systems," Cybernetica, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 83–99, 1958.

Link to full show notes and resources

Guest Bio: Michael Lissack, the founder and director of the Second Order Science Foundation, has dedicated his academic career to understanding how individuals and organizations can learn and adapt in a rapidly changing world. Lissack's work focuses on the intersection of cognition, communication, and technology, and he has developed innovative approaches to knowledge management, organizational learning, and leadership development. Lissack was the president of American Society for Cybernetics, founder of the Institute for the Study of Coherence and Emergence, and founding editor of the journal Emergence. He has taught at several universities throughout the world, including Erasmus in the Netherlands and Tongji in Shanghai. He holds a D.B.A. in complex systems from Brunel University and Henley Management College.

About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.

For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.

Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.

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