Thomas Kelly, an independent researcher and political scientist, dives into the flaws of Festinger's classic study on failed prophecy. He reveals how researchers might have manipulated the UFO group dynamics and misrepresented key events, including internal recruitment strategies and the infamous 'magic box' incident. Kelly also addresses ethical breaches by researchers and the broader implications for cognitive dissonance theory. His findings challenge long-held beliefs and shed light on the ongoing replication crisis in psychology.
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insights INSIGHT
Canonical Cognitive Dissonance Story
Festinger's cognitive dissonance theory explained why people might strengthen beliefs after failed predictions rather than abandon them.
The 1956 book When Prophecy Fails became canonical for explaining persistent belief despite disconfirmation.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Archival Discovery Upends Canonical Case
Thomas Kelly recounts uncovering omitted archival materials that contradict When Prophecy Fails.
He published these findings in the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences.
insights INSIGHT
Prior Evangelism Contradicts 'Reluctant' Claim
Dorothy Martin and key followers actively published and proselytized before December 21, 1954, contradicting Festinger's claim they were reluctant.
UFO magazines and contemporaneous coverage show sustained evangelism prior to the predicted flood.
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The 1956 book When Prophecy Fails describes one of the most famous case studies in social psychology. The researchers Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter covertly joined a small, apocalyptic UFO group, observing how members prepared, including quitting jobs, giving away possessions, and severing ties with skeptics. According to the book, when the group’s predicted disaster did not occur, instead of simply abandoning their beliefs, many core members strengthened their commitment and actively sought new converts.
But it didn’t actually happen like that. In truth, Festinger and his fellow researchers glossed over evidence that contradicted their thesis and actively influenced the UFO group to get the result they wanted.
This is the discovery of our guest Thomas Kelly. By combing through newly unsealed materials from Festinger’s archives, UFO and occult magazines of the 1950s, later writings by group leader Dorothy Martin, he discovered crucial information that was omitted by the original book. Kelly detailed his startling findings in a paper published in the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences titled Debunking “When Prophecy Fails.”
Travis interviews Kelly to discuss the real story behind When Prophecy Fails, the possible consequences of invalidating Festinger’s study, and how his work fits in the wider “replication crisis” in experimental psychology.
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Editing by Corey Klotz. Theme by Nick Sena. Additional music by Pontus Berghe. Theme Vocals by THEY/LIVE (https://instagram.com/theyylivve / https://sptfy.com/QrDm). Cover Art by Pedro Correa: (https://pedrocorrea.com)
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SOURCES
Debunking “When Prophecy Fails”
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jhbs.70043
Debunking “When Prophecy Fails” (Free Preprint Version)
https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/9j7qc_v2
Failed Prophecies Are Fatal
https://journal.equinoxpub.com/IJSNR/article/view/33085/32543
Cults, Conscripts, and College Boys: Whither Cognitive Dissonance? (Preprint)
https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/xdj2u_v1
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