Failed prophecies, survivorship bias, and debunking

The 1956 book When Prophecy Fails describes one of the most famous case studies in social psychology. The researchers Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter covertly joined a small, apocalyptic UFO group, observing how members prepared, including quitting jobs, giving away possessions, and severing ties with skeptics. According to the book, when the group’s predicted disaster did not occur, instead of simply abandoning their beliefs, many core members strengthened their commitment and actively sought new converts. But it didn’t actually happen like that. In truth, Festinger and his fellow researchers glossed over evidence that contradicted their thesis and actively influenced the UFO group to get the result they wanted. This is the discovery of our guest Thomas Kelly. By combing through newly unsealed materials from Festinger’s archives, UFO and occult magazines of the 1950s, later writings by group leader Dorothy Martin, he discovered crucial information that was omitted by the original book. Kelly detailed his startling findings in a paper published in the Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences titled Debunking “When Prophecy Fails.” Travis interviews Kelly to discuss the real story behind When Prophecy Fails, the possible consequences of invalidating Festinger’s study, and how his work fits in the wider “replication crisis” in experimental psychology. Subscribe for $5 a month to get all the premium episodes: www.patreon.com/qaa The first five episodes of Annie Kelly’s new 6-part podcast miniseries “Truly Tradly Deeply” are available to Cursed Media subscribers. www.cursedmedia.net/ Cursed Media subscribers also get access to every episode of every QAA miniseries we produced, including Manclan by Julian Feeld and Annie Kelly, Trickle Down by Travis View, The Spectral Voyager by Jake Rockatansky and Brad Abrahams, and Perverts by Julian Feeld and Liv Agar. Plus, Cursed Media subscribers will get access to at least three new exclusive podcast miniseries every year. www.cursedmedia.net/ Editing by Corey Klotz. Theme by Nick Sena. Additional music by Pontus Berghe. Theme Vocals by THEY/LIVE (https://instagram.com/theyylivve / https://sptfy.com/QrDm). Cover Art by Pedro Correa: (https://pedrocorrea.com) https://qaapodcast.com QAA was known as the QAnon Anonymous podcast. SOURCES Debunking “When Prophecy Fails” https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jhbs.70043 Debunking “When Prophecy Fails” (Free Preprint Version) https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/9j7qc_v2 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal https://journal.equinoxpub.com/IJSNR/article/view/33085/32543 Cults, Conscripts, and College Boys: Whither Cognitive Dissonance? (Preprint) https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/xdj2u_v1