The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish #144 Gary Klein: Insights For Making Better Decisions
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Aug 9, 2022 Gary Klein, a celebrated research psychologist, shares nearly 50 years of insights on human decision-making. He delves into naturalistic decision-making and explains the difference between experience and expertise. Listeners will discover the value of decision journals for reflecting on past choices and the significance of cognitive flexibility. The discussion also highlights the innovative concept of strategic premortems to foresee project failures and the 'zone of indifference' that causes decision paralysis. Klein emphasizes storytelling's power and environmental factors in shaping decisions.
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Identifying Experts
- To identify experts, ask about their past mistakes.
- True experts readily acknowledge and learn from errors.
True Expertise vs. Confidence
- People often misjudge credibility based on superficial traits like confidence.
- Use cognitive interviews and scenario-based tests to assess true understanding.
Petrochemical Plant Example
- A confident worker in a petrochemical plant failed a decision-making exercise, while a less confident peer excelled.
- The incident highlighted that confidence does not always equate to competence.