The Tim Ferriss Show #338: Howard Marks — How to Invest with Clear Thinking
Three Bull Market Stages
- Bull markets have three stages: few insiders optimistic, majority confident, then everyone euphoric.
- High optimism in late stages signals risks and need for caution.
Invest Comfortably and Cautiously
- Invest according to your comfort level to avoid panic selling in downturns.
- Balance risk of losing money with risk of missing opportunities, preferring caution in uncertain times.
Games Reveal Risk Tolerance
- Playing games like chess or backgammon reveals risk tolerance and intellectual style.
- Use these insights to better understand your investing risk profile.
Howard Marks (@howardmarksbook) is co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading investment firm with more than $120 billion in assets. He is the author of the new book Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side, and his previous book on investing, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, was a critically acclaimed bestseller. Warren Buffett has written of Howard Marks: "When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something." Marks holds a B.S.Ec. degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a major in finance and an M.B.A. in accounting and marketing from the University of Chicago.
In this conversation, we discuss:
- How his firm was poised to capitalize on the bubble in 2008 and put massive amounts of capital to work.
- His thoughts on understanding market cycles for making better decisions.
- The three stages of a bull market.
- Newsletters he reads.
- Thoughts on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
- Much, much more...
Studying what Howard says transcends the world of investing—it's really a study in clearer thinking. I hope you enjoy and learn as much as I did!
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Past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show include Jerry Seinfeld, Hugh Jackman, Dr. Jane Goodall, LeBron James, Kevin Hart, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jamie Foxx, Matthew McConaughey, Esther Perel, Elizabeth Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah Harari, Malcolm Gladwell, Madeleine Albright, Cheryl Strayed, Jim Collins, Mary Karr, Maria Popova, Sam Harris, Michael Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren Aronofsky, and many more.
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