#338: Howard Marks — How to Invest with Clear Thinking
The Tim Ferriss Show
How Much Optimism Is Factored Into the Price?
The secret of success in investing and avoiding bad things has to be the price you pay. It's not what you buy, it's what you pay. There are no asset which is so good that it can't become overpriced. We make money from favorable surprises. So if you could find out that here's a stock, nobody thinks this company can ever have a good day, maybe there's a chance that it'll produce some favorable surprises and makeyou a lot of money.
Howard Marks (@howardmarksbook) is co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading investment firm with more than $120 billion in assets. He is the author of the new book Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side, and his previous book on investing, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, was a critically acclaimed bestseller. Warren Buffett has written of Howard Marks: "When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something." Marks holds a B.S.Ec. degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a major in finance and an M.B.A. in accounting and marketing from the University of Chicago.
In this conversation, we discuss:
- How his firm was poised to capitalize on the bubble in 2008 and put massive amounts of capital to work.
- His thoughts on understanding market cycles for making better decisions.
- The three stages of a bull market.
- Newsletters he reads.
- Thoughts on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
- Much, much more...
Studying what Howard says transcends the world of investing—it's really a study in clearer thinking. I hope you enjoy and learn as much as I did!
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