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The New Liberal Podcast
Modeling the 2024 Race ft. Lakshya Jain
Oct 25, 2024
Lakshya Jain, the CEO and co-founder of Split Ticket, shares his insights into the 2024 presidential race. He discusses the difficulties in modeling this election and why polling can be misleading. Jain analyzes the phenomenon of 'shy' Trump voters and what this means for poll accuracy. The conversation also covers crucial indicators to watch on election night and the shifting dynamics of the congressional races. With changing attitudes towards vote by mail and key locality trends, Jain provides a nuanced view of the electoral landscape.
58:30
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Quick takeaways
- The stability of the 2024 presidential race contrasts with previous election cycles, as recent candidate changes have not led to significant polling volatility.
- Economic factors have contributed to a decline in high-quality polls, making it increasingly difficult to accurately gauge voter sentiment ahead of the election.
Deep dives
Stability in the 2024 Election Race
The 2024 presidential election presents a notably stable atmosphere despite changes in candidates. After Kamala Harris entered the race, polling averages showed little volatility, contrasting the expected fluctuations common in previous election cycles. With fewer high-quality polls being released, there is significant uncertainty regarding the accuracy of current predictions. This lack of polling data has prompted many observers to draw assumptions based on limited information, leading to potential misinterpretations of the electoral landscape.
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Discover
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