Risk of Ruin

A Seemingly Obvious Idea

9 snips
Mar 2, 2024
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ANECDOTE

Early Big Wins Changed His Path

  • Andrew Black hit big wins early in his gambling life, including a fruit machine jackpot and big horse bets.
  • Those wins funded racehorse purchases and led him to quit work and gamble professionally for a time.
ANECDOTE

Built An Odds Model, Hit Limits

  • Andrew Black built a football odds model and used it to find value against poor bookmaker pricing.
  • Bookmakers started limiting his stakes, which pushed him to seek different ways to access betting markets.
INSIGHT

Boredom Produced The Betfair Idea

  • Long stretches of boredom at GCHQ let Andrew Black free-associate and refine the Betfair idea.
  • He iterated on the concept mentally until he was convinced it could work as an exchange.
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