The selection of RCP scenarios in climate research was influenced by economic and political considerations, highlighting the need to consider plausible futures and avoid extreme scenarios in climate policymaking.
Political science plays a crucial role in addressing climate change by providing insights into decision-making processes and fostering broad-based justifications for climate action, while universities should promote free thinking and open dialogue on the topic.
Global climate policy requires collective global action and collaboration, with a focus on understanding diverse perspectives and common goals, particularly in regions where energy consumption and emissions are projected to have a significant impact on the long-term climate future.
Deep dives
Climate scenarios and their origins
The podcast episode discusses the origin and use of representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios in climate research. These scenarios were created to understand different future trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on the climate. The selection of RCP scenarios was not solely based on scientific evidence, but also involved economic and political considerations. In particular, RCP 8.5, which projects high greenhouse gas emissions, was not intended to be a realistic projection but rather a scenario to explore extreme possibilities. It is now widely recognized that RCP 8.5 is implausible, and even the Biden administration has moved away from it. The episode highlights the importance of considering plausible futures and avoiding extreme scenarios in climate research and policymaking.
The role of political science in climate debates
The podcast emphasizes the significance of political science in understanding and addressing climate change. Political science provides insights into decision-making processes, policy formulation, and the integration of science into policy. As highlighted in the episode, climate change is a highly politicized issue, particularly in the United States, where polarization along political lines has influenced the climate policy debate. However, the episode suggests that it is crucial to move beyond this polarization and focus on broad-based justifications for climate action to effectively engage diverse stakeholders and achieve meaningful policy outcomes. The role of universities in fostering free thinking and open dialogue is also discussed, emphasizing the importance of continuing academic and societal debates on climate change.
Climate policy and global perspectives
The podcast explores the evolving landscape of climate policy and the challenges of achieving global consensus. It notes that while the US and European debates on climate change often center on domestic politics, the long-term climate future will be largely influenced by the energy consumption and emissions of countries in Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. The podcast highlights the need for collective global action and collaboration to address climate change. The episode mentions that public opinion on climate change varies across regions, with some countries demonstrating greater consensus and commitment to addressing climate challenges. It emphasizes the importance of understanding diverse perspectives and focusing on common goals to make progress in global climate policy.
The Limitations of Long-Term Climate Predictions
Long-term climate predictions, specifically predicting temperature relative to pre-industrial average in 2100, are highly uncertain. History has shown that long-term predictions, considering complex factors such as technology, population, and economic growth, are often inaccurate. The focus should shift towards initiating a long-term journey rather than trying to accurately predict the future temperature. Prioritizing emission reduction by 2030 should be the starting point.
The Importance of Expanding Policy Options for Decarbonization
The IPCC's integrated assessment models, which guide climate policy, have limitations. They often neglect factors like peak oil and rely on magical technologies for carbon sequestration. To achieve accurate climate assessments, models need to consider a wider range of policy options, including nuclear energy and improved efficiencies in various sectors. By expanding available choices and focusing on energy security and economic growth, we can avoid politicization and work towards effective decarbonization.
On this episode, Nate is joined by climate and policy scientist Roger Pielke Jr. to discuss the progression of climate research and modeling. The climate activist community is based around projections of what a future might look like given the actions of society - an important tool in the push for urgent climate action. Yet, just like with any other model, the assumptions and parameters can greatly shape the outcomes. How has climate science been shaped by previous models and public perception? How did 2Cº come to be our common climate goal post? Are we anticipating the future within the most likely range of possibilities, or are we polarizing ourselves to the extremes of climate denial and climate doom?
About Roger Pielke Jr.
Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor at the University of Colorado where he teaches environmental science and policy. A lifetime scholar with many interests, Roger researches and writes on subjects from understanding the politicization of science to decision making under uncertainty to policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade. His most recent book, The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change takes a deeper look at the IPCC and climate science and how it is being interpreted in the media. Roger also oversees a popular Substack - The Honest Broker - where he is experimenting with a new approach to research, writing and public engagement. Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder.
For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/81-roger-pielke
