More or Less Immigration, Benefits and Inequality
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Jan 9, 2026 
In this enlightening discussion, Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, dives into the fascinating dynamics of UK immigration, revealing that 98% of population growth stems from this factor. Lukas Lehner, a welfare expert, critiques the UK’s low benefit spending compared to peers and highlights a rise in mental health-related incapacity claims. Arun Advani addresses income inequality, showing a modest rise in the top 1% share but a decline in wealth disparity over time, while public trust in government remains alarmingly low.
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Employment Determines Fiscal Effects
- Migration's fiscal impact depends mainly on employment rates and job types.
- Recent rises in asylum seekers likely made the net fiscal effect less favourable.
No Exact Count For Permanent Residents
- There's no precise official count of people holding Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR).
- Non-EU ILR holders likely number 600k–800k, plus ~4 million under the post-Brexit settlement for EU citizens.
Asylum Backlogs Remain A Major Challenge
- Asylum applications reached record highs of just over 100,000 in the past year.
- The initial decision backlog fell to around 80,000 by Sept 2025, with another ~50,000 appeals pending in courts.