More or Less The Stats of the Nation: Immigration, benefits and inequality
60 snips
Jan 9, 2026 
In this enlightening discussion, Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, dives into the fascinating dynamics of UK immigration, revealing that 98% of population growth stems from this factor. Lukas Lehner, a welfare expert, critiques the UK’s low benefit spending compared to peers and highlights a rise in mental health-related incapacity claims. Arun Advani addresses income inequality, showing a modest rise in the top 1% share but a decline in wealth disparity over time, while public trust in government remains alarmingly low.
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Migration Drives Future Population Growth
- Net migration was projected to account for about 98% of UK population growth around 2024–25.
- If natural change turns negative after 2030, migration will supply more than 100% of future growth.
Post-Brexit Migration Rollercoaster
- Net migration surged after Brexit and peaked above 900,000 in 2022–23 before falling to just over 200,000 by mid-2025.
- Policy changes on work and study visas materially altered those flows.
Different Migrant Types Shape Net Flows
- Immigrants arrive mainly for work and study, but refugees and family migrants are likelier to remain.
- Those differences change the net migration composition and long-run impacts.