Nullius in Verba

Episode 3: Confirmatio Praeiudicia

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Mar 10, 2023
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INSIGHT

Positive Test Strategy Limits Learning

  • People favor tests that confirm their hypothesis (positive test strategy) rather than tests that could falsify it.
  • Negative answers are more informative yet people rarely use modus tollens when probing rules.
INSIGHT

Peer Review As A Bias Check

  • Peer review exists primarily to counteract researchers' confirmation bias.
  • Scientists ask others to check whether independent readers also see the same evidence.
ANECDOTE

Mistakes That Confirm Hypotheses

  • A colleague found transcription errors that biased results toward his hypothesis.
  • Even mistakes tended to confirm the researcher's expectation.
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