Venture Europe: Entrepreneurship | Technology | Venture Capital | Eu/Acc Annie Duke - Decision Science, Frameworks for entrepreneurs on how to decide, Mental time travel, The monkey on the pedestal, Decision quality VS Outcome quality, Thinking in Bets
May 21, 2024
Annie Duke, a Special Partner at First Round Capital Partners and bestselling author, dives into the art of decision-making. She shares insights from her poker career, emphasizing that decision quality is more important than outcome quality. Annie discusses mental time travel as a tool for enhancing decision processes, and explores her 'monkeys and pedestals' framework, which warns against getting sidetracked by easier tasks. She also introduces 'kill criteria' to help entrepreneurs pivot effectively, ensuring smarter choices in a world of uncertainty.
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Poker and Decision-Making
- Decisions are influenced by luck (aleatory uncertainty) and our limited knowledge (epistemic uncertainty).
- Poker teaches you to make high-stakes decisions in uncertain environments.
Luck and Skill Attribution
- In short-term, noisy systems, it's easy to blame luck for losses and claim skill for wins.
- This protects self-image but hinders learning and improvement.
Focusing on Process
- Focus on the process of decision-making, not just the outcome.
- Involve others for unbiased perspectives and record your reasoning for later analysis.
