Scott Gottlieb on how, and when, to end social distancing

Apr 13, 2020

Scott Gottlieb, a former FDA commissioner and public health expert, discusses the future of social distancing and the complex road to reopening the economy amidst COVID-19. He outlines a phased roadmap for easing restrictions and highlights significant challenges like testing shortages and political will. Gottlieb emphasizes the need for effective contact tracing and addresses the uncertain state between lockdown and vaccine availability, particularly affecting vulnerable populations. His insights present a crucial framework for navigating the path forward.

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INSIGHT

Pandemic Readiness Gap

The US had the highest pandemic readiness score but faltered in its COVID-19 response.
This highlights a gap between theoretical preparedness and practical execution.

INSIGHT

COVID-19's Unique Threat

COVID-19's unique blend of contagiousness and lethality makes it a uniquely challenging pathogen.
Unlike SARS or MERS, its asymptomatic spread allows for rapid, undetected transmission.

INSIGHT

No Return to Normal

There won't be a sudden return to normalcy after social distancing ends.
COVID-19 will permanently alter how we live and do business, even with a vaccine.

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When will social distancing end? When will life return to “normal”? And what will it take to get there?

Scott Gottlieb is a physician and public health expert who served as Donald Trump’s first FDA commissioner, where he was the rare Trump appointee to win plaudits from both the left and the right. Now he’s a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he’s emerged as a leading voice on the coronavirus response.

Gottlieb is one of the lead authors of a comprehensive roadmap for what it would take to end social distancing and reopen the American economy. The report divides coronavirus response into four distinct phases (we are currently in phase one, which requires the strictest social distancing measures) and documents key “triggers” that states need to meet if they want to advance to a phase with less intense social distancing and a somewhat normal economy. It’s exactly what we need right now: a specific proposal for what comes next that we can actually analyze and debate.

Two themes drive this conversation. First, what are the challenges to simply getting out of lockdown? Why don’t we have enough tests yet? What’s stopping us from making more? And second, what does the world look like out of lockdown but before we get to a vaccine? What’s being imagined here isn’t a return to normal, either socially or economically, but a kind of limbo that it’s not clear we have the political will to sustain and that has few answers for the most vulnerable among us.

For more on this topic, I looked at not just the AEI plan but three others for this piece. I thought immersing myself in the plans to reopen the economy would be some comfort. Boy, was I wrong.

Resources:

"A road map to re-opening" by Scott Gottlieb, Caitlin Rivers, Mark McClellan, Lauren Silvis, and Crystal Watson, AEI

"I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary." by Ezra Klein, Vox

The Weeds - How does this end?

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