Gerald Ashley, Co-founder of St Mawgan & Co, discusses the difference between risk and uncertainty, categorizing issues as puzzles, problems, or messes. He explores the challenges of managing risks in decision-making, the complexities of uncertainty in financial markets, and the importance of acknowledging uncertainties and gathering diverse information for effective navigation.
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Quick takeaways
Distinguishing between puzzles, problems, and messes is crucial for effective decision-making in complex systems.
Converting uncertainties into risks through scenario planning is key to managing risk effectively in financial sectors.
Deep dives
Understanding Risk and Uncertainty in Complex Systems
In the podcast, Gerald Ashley discusses the challenges of managing risk in decision-making processes, especially in complex systems. Ashley introduces the concept of '19 and uncertainty,' highlighting the limitations of traditional risk models in predicting outcomes. He emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between messes, problems, and puzzles in decision-making processes. By exploring these distinctions, Ashley sheds light on the implications of mixing up these different types of issues on risk assessment and decision-making strategies.
Navigating Uncertainty Through Real-World Examples
Ashley provides real-world examples to illustrate the transition from uncertainty to risk. He mentions the predictability of natural phenomena like sunrise and sunset as examples of high information and low risk scenarios. By mapping information and risk on a triangle, he explains the challenges of dealing with complete uncertainties where traditional statistical analysis falls short. Ashley highlights the importance of converting uncertainties into risks to make informed decisions and manage uncertainties effectively.
Challenges in Risk Management and Model Application
Ashley delves into the pitfalls of traditional risk management approaches, particularly in the financial sector. He discusses how overreliance on models based on limited data can lead to misinterpretation of risk levels. By referring to the distinction between measuring risk and managing risk, Ashley emphasizes the need for a shift towards more scenario planning and adaptive strategies to address uncertainties effectively.
Impact of Problem Solving Approaches on Decision-Making
The podcast explores how different types of issues necessitate varying problem-solving strategies. Ashley discusses messes, problems, and puzzles as distinct categories of issues that require tailored approaches. He critiques the tendency to prioritize solving puzzles over addressing messes, leading to potential misallocation of resources. By highlighting the importance of understanding and addressing messes before moving to puzzles, Ashley underscores the significance of comprehensive decision-making in complex systems.
Gerald Ashley is the Co-founder and Managing Director of St Mawgan & Co, a London-based strategy and risk consulting agency.
In today’s episode, Gerald explores the difference between risk and uncertainty, the challenges of managing them in the financial world, and how it can be powerful to split issues into either puzzles, problems, or messes.