This chapter explores the speaker's journey from traditional risk models to the complexities of uncertainty, reflecting on the limitations of past data in predicting financial market crashes. It introduces alternative approaches like scenario planning and option pricing, emphasizing the transition from statistical analysis to subjective decision-making. The narrative emphasizes the challenges of balancing risk and uncertainty in decision-making, urging the importance of acknowledging uncertainties and gathering diverse information for effective navigation.
Gerald Ashley is the Co-founder and Managing Director of St Mawgan & Co, a London-based strategy and risk consulting agency.
In today’s episode, Gerald explores the difference between risk and uncertainty, the challenges of managing them in the financial world, and how it can be powerful to split issues into either puzzles, problems, or messes.
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This show is produced in collaboration with Wavelength Creative. Visit wavelengthcreative.com for more information.