Mark Leonard chats with Tobias Gehrke, a senior policy fellow at ECFR, specializing in geoeconomics, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office focusing on tech geopolitics. They dive into how Europe can respond to a potentially confrontational Trump administration. Topics include leveraging trade tariffs, targeting tech giants like Elon Musk, and implementing nuanced regulations to manage American influence in Europe. The discussion highlights the risks of escalating tensions and the importance of a self-reliant tech landscape to safeguard democracy.
Europe must utilize a diverse range of economic tools, including tariffs and regulations, to effectively counter Trump's coercive policies.
The tech industry's influence on democracy necessitates European regulations that safeguard electoral integrity and counter foreign manipulation.
Deep dives
Assessing European Leverage
Europe faces significant challenges in navigating the aggressive economic policies of the Trump administration, particularly in terms of trade. It is essential for European leaders to conduct a thorough inventory of their leverage, or 'cards,' in order to formulate a cohesive strategy. The focus should not solely be on retaliatory tariffs that worked previously but should expand to encompass a range of tools across different domains, including services, intellectual property, and technology. Understanding these diverse options will allow Europe to effectively push back against coercive measures while preparing for potential economic conflicts.
Strategic Deterrence in Economic Relations
To counteract the potential aggression from the Trump administration, Europe's approach must include a strategy of deterrence that conveys a willingness to defend its interests. This could involve leveraging regulations to impose special taxes on American firms operating in Europe or tightening access to critical technology markets. Prioritizing a comprehensive response will help to restore balance in transatlantic relations while signaling to the U.S. that Europe possesses significant economic tools at its disposal. Ultimately, European actions can shape the dynamic of cooperation or confrontation, making it vital to demonstrate readiness and resilience.
The Intersection of Technology and Democracy
The tech industry represents a critical battleground where European regulation might confront American interests, particularly regarding issues of free speech and political influence. As tech giants play a substantial role in shaping democratic processes, Europe must strategically address their impact on local electoral integrity and societal values. This involves tightening regulations to combat potential foreign manipulation through digital platforms, while also ensuring the preservation of fundamental democratic principles. By addressing this intersection of technology and governance, Europe can assert its regulatory autonomy and protect its democratic frameworks against external pressures.
This week, Mark Leonard hosts Tobias Gehrke, an ECFR senior policy fellow specialising in geoeconomics and economic security, and José Ignacio Torreblanca, head of ECFR’s Madrid office and expert on tech geopolitics, to explore how Europe can counter a potentially hostile Trump administration.
With trade wars looming and the US flexing its power, Mark and his guests delve into Tobias’s new policy brief, Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion. They outline which tools Europe can use—from trade tariffs and service restrictions, to targeting tech giants like Elon Musk’s Starlink and Tesla, to curbing data flows and licences for firms like BlackRock—to apply leverage over Trump’s administration. The discussion weighs the costs of deterrence, the risk of escalation into security domains like NATO, and the threat posed by tech tycoons to European democracy. Can Europe stand firm without shooting itself in the foot?