

Future-Proofing Your Strategy with Scenario Planning
16 snips Jul 28, 2020
Peter Scoblic, cofounder of Event Horizon Strategies and senior fellow at the International Security Program at New America, discusses the vital role of scenario planning in strategic foresight. He emphasizes how companies often neglect long-term thinking, leading to vulnerability in crises. Using the U.S. Coast Guard's experiences, Scoblic illustrates the power of diverse perspectives and flexibility. He argues that embracing imagination and adapting mental models are key to thriving in uncertainty, shaping a resilient future for organizations.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Iterative Scenario Planning
- Use scenario planning iteratively, not as a one-off exercise.
- Constantly imagine future scenarios and act in the present to reduce surprises.
Undervalued Foresight
- Leaders overestimate the time and resources needed for future planning.
- The US Coast Guard's effective, low-resource foresight program demonstrates this.
Coast Guard's Project Longview
- In 1998, Admiral James Loy initiated Project Longview within the Coast Guard.
- This scenario planning exercise explored diverse future scenarios to improve preparedness.